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The global autonomous last mile delivery market size is projected to reach USD 51.38 billion by 2028 from its value USD 11.12 billion in 2021, at CAGR of 24.4% during forecast period. In 2020, the autonomous last mile delivery market was valued at USD 8.78 billion. Based on our analysis, the market exhibited a stellar growth of 26.3% in 2020 as compared to the average year-on-year growth during 2017-2019. The global impact of COVID-19 has been unprecedented and staggering, with unmanned parcel delivery market manufacturers witnessing a positive demand shock across all regions amid the pandemic. The sudden rise in CAGR is attributable to this market’s demand and growth, returning to pre-pandemic levels once the pandemic is over.
Autonomous last mile delivery is the last stage of the courier, parcel express, where the parcel is delivered to end-users at their doorsteps without human intervention. This is achieved through the use of drones, autonomous vehicles, and robots. Automated parcel delivery technologies are rising due to consumers' demand for fastest deliveries. The production of small mobile delivery robots & drones has seen significant growth in the past few years owing to the rise in e-commerce business across the globe. Moreover, rapid technology developments, shifting consumer expectations for same-day delivery in some regions, and companies' new model innovation with a wider range altogether are propelling the growth of the market.
COVID-19 Pandemic to Accelerate Viability of Automated Delivery Due to Its Speedy & Safe Deliveries
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered many industries, including e-commerce and online shopping business. The pandemic has accelerated digitalization and increased the value of data for last mile delivery technologies as a part of the logistics industry as consumers' demand for one-day delivery with comfortable fulfillment of advanced technology has created a perfect boost for the adoption of drones and delivery robots due to COVID-19 rules.
Moreover, many companies had promised to change product delivery for the automated last mile delivery ecosystem, but this pandemic greatly accelerated the delivery industry's changes. The companies started considering brick-and-mortar stores as warehouses in their distribution networks and used AI tech to digitize inventory data. The algorithm used for real-time monitoring & tracking is helping many companies to ease their operation by delivering the product to the customer within a time frame. Furthermore, last mile delivery will certainly not look the same after COVID-19 as the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of last mile delivery technologies, and will continue to create favorable opportunities for market players.
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Rapid Increase In E-Commerce Sales & Consumers Demand For Fast Delivery to Augment Growth
In recent years, the trend of shopping and urban commercial delivery has vastly changed. The boom in the sale of e-commerce has challenged manufacturing plants, warehouses, or distribution centers to other businesses or retail stores to deliver small orders at different locations at stipulated times. According to insider intelligence, in 2020, Canada’s e-commerce sales were expected to hit USD 39.22 billion, up more than 20% from 2019. Similarly, e-commerce sales in the U.S. during 2020 were estimated at USD 791.7 billion, up nearly one-third from 2019. As per the Capgemini survey, 56% of online shoppers between 18 and 34 age expected same-day delivery, while 61% of consumers were prepared to pay an additional charge for the convenience of same-day service. This trend will accelerate to create a demand for an autonomous robot, drone delivery.
Furthermore, many organizations are figuring out to effectively tackle the challenging customer need & delivery solutions. E-commerce companies globally have announced multibillion-dollar supply chain investments to promise faster deliveries, along with additional benefits of boost in customer satisfaction, rein in costs, and gain a competitive advantage. Therefore, all these developments to fulfill customers' demands will propel the autonomous packages delivery market in the future.
Service Innovation and Use of Advanced Technology Platforms to Propel Market
New vehicles are changing the face of last mile delivery services. Major logistics companies are experimenting & investing in R&D on new solutions to combat rising customers demand. Leading DHL company in 2019 has developed a customized trailer that carries about four containers named “DHL city Hub.” This container is used by the company’s cubicycles (cargo bicycles) which further have a loading capacity of up to 125kg. Moreover, rapid progress in delivery technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) based autonomous delivery vehicles, drones, and others are directly helping by reducing dependency on worker availability, driving down the labor costs, and also enables around clock delivery.
Furthermore, many giant retailers are testing unmanned parcel delivery products. For instance, Kroger Co. and Walmart are testing Nuro Self driving robots to deliver groceries. This compact driverless vehicle operates four cargo holds and transport anywhere from groceries to dry cleaning products. Similarly, Walgreens recently announced testing an on-demand delivery service with Alphabet’s drone concept Wing in Christiansburg. In addition, Starship Technologies builds delivery robots, also known as pavement droids. In their concept, customers can place an order through an application, and the little robot delivers it through the city streets. Also, with advances in hardware, the software is evolving to better handle last mile deliveries.
Further, smart tracking & route optimization solutions are also helping companies to boost the efficiency of deliveries. These solutions often leverage technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to optimize routes and reduce delays. Thus, advanced technology and companies' active involvement are propelling to autonomous last mile delivery market growth.
Lack of Infrastructure Support and Range Complexity May Restrain Growth
The parcel delivery cost from autonomous vehicles is expected to be lower in the forecast period but dependent on the delivery pattern (same day, 30 minutes, next day). Autonomous robots operate efficiently if all the expected parameters are met well. Infrastructure support is one of the key factors responsible for their performance. This delivery through drones initially requires a standard platform for landing & takeoff. Also, connecting through the internet to track the time, hour, and exact location information to the end user is important for driving parcel deliveries.
Moreover, in some regions, a weak network and lack of infrastructures may result in delays in delivery time, and location mismatch, which further affects the overall operation & tracking. The companies are currently in the stage of developing a long-range-based delivery product to meet the end-user need. There are also many restrictions associated with automated last miles delivery services, such as low range of travel anxiety, moderate performance, and lack of precise operation in rural areas, which may lead to the lower demand for unmanned last mile delivery services. It will subsequently hamper the market growth.
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Development of Aerial Delivery Drones Segment to Dominate the Market
Based on the vehicle type, the market share is broken down into ground delivery bots, aerial delivery drones, and self-driving trucks & vans. The ground delivery bots segment is predicted to hold the dominant market share during 2021-2028. Continuous advances in ground delivery bots technology are being made. For instance, Amazon’s product delivery robot “scout” can roll along sidewalks and deliver packages at customers' doorsteps. Similarly, various developments carried out across the globe are expected to grow the market during the forecast period.
Aerial delivery drones have wider scope in the market due to their applications in last mile delivery services as they travel by air and are not involved in road traffic congestion and other issues that can hamper the service of the product. These factors are expected to boost the aerial drone parcel delivery applications during the forecast period.
Advancement of autonomous technology such as self-driving trucks & vans led by innovative efforts by prominent players including Volvo, Tesla, General Motors, Nissan, and Renault will boost the growth of self-driving trucks & vans in last mile delivery services.
Hardware Segment to Dominate the Market Share owing to Better Performance Wide Application Range
Based on solution, the market share is split into hardware, software, and services. The hardware segment is anticipated to hold the largest market share through 2028 in terms of revenue owing to its increased use of airframes, global positioning & navigation system, sensors, camera in advanced drones, and autonomous delivery robot applications.
Software such as route optimization & planning, live tracking, fleet management, inventory management, and others forms a medium through which autonomous mile delivery services operate efficiently. For instance, Starship Technologies company uses Sitara processors, which are specifically optimized for the low powered robot operation of machine learning in the robot itself, which enables mmWave sensor data to be utilized for accurate categorization in real-time. Such innovation and advanced use of software for the applications of last mile deliveries is expected to boost the market's growth.
Companies are seen taking the initiative in COVID1-19 crisis to provide fast delivery of packages and emergency need to the customers. The applications of autonomous last mile delivery products in the service-based industry have increased due to the rise in demand for better & efficient delivery services that supplement the market's growth.
Long Range Segment to Show Rapid Growth as Key Players Boost R&D and Innovation
Based on range, the market share is bifurcated into long-range and short-range. Currently, the short-range segment will lead the global market share through 2028 in terms of revenue. The global market is in the introduction phase due to which autonomous drones and vehicle manufacturers have introduced short-range delivery drones. In addition, this helps manufacturers to carry out different testing, which is expected to drive the growth of short-range(<20km) last mile delivery drones across the globe.
Long-range parcel delivery robots/products include ground delivery bots and self-driving trucks& vans, which deliver last mile services to customers' doorsteps. In addition, the companies have carried out numerous developments in the last mile delivery system/services, which is expected to foster the growth of the long-range (>20km) market in the forecast period.
North America Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Market Size, 2020 (USD Billion)
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North America dominated the global market in 2020 with a revenue share of USD 3.59 billion. It is anticipated that the region will continue hold the largest share over the projected timeframe. The companies' continuous involvement in carrying out innovation related to infrastructure developments, funding, and acceptance of drone delivery among people, and increasing e-commerce sales in these regions are propelling to boost the market growth. Moreover, during the pandemic, across North America, customers are inclined to e-shopping for daily necessities such as groceries, medicines, and others as preventive measures to avoid human-to-human interaction or contact. Thus, to deliver the orders, shop owners and other ecosystem players have collaborated and agreed with local & international drones and ground delivery bot manufacturers to offer their products. For instance, REV-1, the last mile delivery robot of refraction AI, has been indulged in delivering lunch orders from stores to customers. Such types of developments and strategies across the North American region supplementing the market growth.
Key players operating in the Europe market such as Airbus, Flytrex, Savioke, and delivery companies such as Amazon, UPS, DHL, and others are developing different autonomous last mile delivery vehicles and collaborating with different companies to ensure speedy delivery along with the safety of customers are creating a demand for autonomous last mile delivery services in Europe regional market.
Leading players in the Asia Pacific region, such as JD.com, Meituan Dianping, Nuro, and Navya, deliver medical supplies between hospitals campuses. ThyssenKrupp is trying a mini robot to send specific components to their technicians at the right place and time. Such developments from the Asian players in the delivery market is expected to boost the market growth in the future.
In the Middle East and African countries, economic development and industrial expansion will offer promising opportunities for the automation of last mile delivery services. Furthermore, a drastic rise in unmanned autonomous vehicles in Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the UAE are observed. Moreover, demonstration of delivery robot package delivery and change in customers' lifestyle are expected to boost the regional market growth during 2021-2028.
Increasing Service Innovation and Usage Of Advanced Technology From Amazon, DHL, and Matternet Players To Boost Growth
Key players in the market include Amazon, DHL, DPD, Matternet, and JD.com. The majority of companies are emphasizing expansion of production capacities and investing more in the R&D of products to ease the operation process of delivery.
For instance, Walmart has partnered with Flytrex, Zipline, and Quest Diagnostics for on-demand deliveries in response to Amazon’s approval from the FAA to test Prime Air delivery drones. In addition, Amazon is providing support/training to avoid real-world obstacles to their autonomous delivery robot-“scout.” In addition, Zipline, a San Francisco-based drone delivery company, has received a first-of-its-kind FAA waiver for using their long-range drones to deliver PPE to North Carolina-based healthcare provider Novant Health.
An Infographic Representation of Autonomous last-mile delivery Market
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The global autonomous last mile delivery market research report provides a detailed analysis of the market. It focuses on key aspects such as leading companies, product types, and leading applications of the product. Besides this, it offers insights into the market trends and highlights key industry developments. In addition to the factors above, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the market's growth over recent years.
Value (USD Billion)
By Vehicle Type
Fortune Business Insights says that the global autonomous last mile delivery market size was USD 8.78 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach USD 51.38 billion by 2028.
In 2020, the North America autonomous last mile delivery market value stood at USD 3.59 billion.
The autonomous last mile delivery market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 24.4% in the forecast period (2021-2028).
The long-range segment is expected to lead the market during the forecast period.
The key factors driving the global market are the increasing sales, e-commerce, and consumer demand for same day, 30 min delivery, and advancement in delivery vehicles.
Amazon, UPS, and DHL are the major players in the global market.
North America dominated the market in terms of share in 2020.
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