Condensed Milk Market Size, Share & Industry Analysis, By Type (Sweetened Condensed Milk and Unsweetened Condensed Milk), By Form (Liquid and Powder), By Source (Dairy-based and Non Dairy-based), By Application (Bakery, Confectionery, Beverages, Dairy Products, and Others), and Regional Forecast, 2026-2034

The global condensed milk market size was valued at USD 11.33 billion in 2025. The market is projected to grow from USD 11.82 billion in 2026 to USD 16.87 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.54% during the forecast period.

Condensed milk is a concentrated dairy item produced by removing a substantial portion of water, typically via low-pressure evaporation. This product was invented in the 19th century as a shelf-stable and safe substitute for fresh milk, which later gained popularity due to its extended storage life and portability. A few of the common forms include unsweetened and sweetened evaporated milk. Nutritionally, it offers essential vitamins, calories, and proteins, similar to milk. Moreover, it has a long shelf life and is cost-effective for utilization in the foodservice sector. Additionally, it is convenient to store and can be used as needed. Today, it is primarily used in confectionery, baked goods, and beverages to improve the flavor and texture of finished items.

The rising sweetened condensed milk production, combined with its wide availability at supermarkets and hypermarkets, is propelling the market’s momentum. Some of the major players include Nestlé S.A., Arla Foods, FrieslandCampina N.V., and others.

MARKET DYNAMICS

MARKET DRIVERS:

Increasing Need for Convenience Items Bolster Market’s Potential

The rising consumer shift toward convenience items is a key factor augmenting the demand for condensed milk. Today, the majority of younger demographics and working professionals are seeking items that minimize preparation time without compromising texture and taste. Condensed milk aligns with this demand as it serves as both a thickener and a dairy base in a single ingredient. Moreover, it offers convenience and usability by eliminating the need for numerous preparation steps, making it a suitable component for beverages and desserts. This milk is readily available in convenient formats, such as easy-pour bottles, squeeze tubes, and single-serve sachets, which have contributed to its high adoption rate. Additionally, the growing café culture and home baking trend are other factors contributing to the market’s potential. Thus, manufacturers are focusing on introducing new variants of condensed milk that suit consumer requirements. 

MARKET RESTRAINTS:

Rising Health Ailments and Variations in Raw Materials May Hinder Market’s Momentum

One of the main obstacles is surging health concerns. Globally, most consumers are highly concerned about their health and are seeking substitutes to high-sugar evaporated milk. Condensed milk is known for its high saturated fat, which can elevate LDL cholesterol levels and increase the risk of cardiovascular issues. Moreover, the high sugar content in milk exacerbates insulin resistance, fueling the chances of contracting type 2 diabetes. Additionally, its high-calorie content leads to weight gain, further intensifying the risk of obesity. Additionally, dental problems and digestive issues are other primary ailments linked with the consumption of condensed milk. As a result, such challenges impede the global condensed milk market growth.

Fluctuations in raw materials pose another challenge to the global industry. The prices of major ingredients, such as sugar and milk, fluctuate frequently, which can impact the final price, manufacturing costs, and profit margins of the product.

MARKET OPPORTUNITIES:

Technological Advancements in the Milk Market Create Growth Opportunities

The adoption of advanced technology in the milk market opens various growth opportunities. To enhance quality, companies can use wrap-around separators and falling film evaporators, which operate at lower temperatures. Automated systems and advanced sensors are another technique that can be used to enhance the quality of raw milk. Moreover, factories should utilize advanced machinery for pasteurization, homogenization, and evaporation to ensure efficiency and precision in transforming raw milk into condensed milk. Additionally, ultra-high temperature techniques should be utilized to extend the shelf life of evaporated milk. In addition, the advanced spray drying technique is gaining popularity in the market for producing soluble and finer milk powders.

CONDENSED MILK MARKET TRENDS:

Rising Inclination Toward Plant-Based Substitutes is the Ongoing Trend

The global industry is experiencing a growing and remarkable trend toward plant-based alternatives. As a growing number of individuals become health-conscious and seek alternatives due to vegan lifestyles and lactose intolerance, plant-centric options are gaining visibility across foodservice and retail outlets. These items appeal to a wide consumer base, including both vegan and traditional dairy users. Today, more than half of the population is suffering from lactose intolerance, which gravitates them toward plant-based options. This scenario fuels the adoption of vegan evaporated milk across the market. Similarly, traditional condensed milk, plant-based milk can be utilized in beverage, bakery, and confectionery applications. In response to this demand, manufacturers are aiming to introduce new vegan evaporated milk for global consumers.

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Segmentation Analysis

By Type

Sweetened Condensed Milk Led the Market Due to Its Prolonged Shelf Life

On the basis of type, the market is segmented into sweetened condensed milk and unsweetened condensed milk. The sweetened condensed milk dominated the market in 2025. Compared to unsweetened milk, sweetened condensed milk has an extended shelf life and offers a sweet flavor, which is ideal for pies, custards, and cakes. Moreover, sweetened milk has a thicker and creamier texture, which improves sensory appeal. Additionally, it has better stability, especially without refrigeration, which further boosts its usage. As a result, such advantages propel the momentum of the condensed milk industry.

The unsweetened condensed milk segment is expected to flourish at a high CAGR of 3.35% during the study period.

By Form

Liquid Category Dominated the Market Owing to Its Creamy Texture

Based on form, the market is distributed into liquid and powder. The liquid segment led the industry in 2025. Liquid milk offers a superior texture and taste that is challenging to replicate in powder form. Moreover, it is readily usable in a variety of products, including coffee, tea, ice cream, sauces, and beverages, and is highly preferred by foodservice operators. Additionally, it has better performance in cold applications and is known for caramelizing evenly in fudge, banoffee pie, and toffee.

The powder segment is expected to flourish at a high CAGR of 2.96% during the study period.

By Source

Dairy-based leads the Market Because Of Its Stable Structure

Depending on source, the market is segmented into dairy-based and non dairy-based. The dairy-based sector leads the market in 2025. In comparison to vegan condensed milk, dairy-based products offer natural milk solids and milkfat, which create a balanced sweetness and caramelized notes. Moreover, dairy condensed milk can easily withstand high cooking temperatures due to denatured proteins and heat-stable sugars. Additionally, it dissolves instantly in cold and hot beverages, which appeals to foodservice operators. In addition, it offers essential nutrients such as calcium, phosphorus, casein, and vitamins.

The non dairy-based segment is anticipated to grow at a high CAGR of 7.92% during the study period. 

By Application

Bakery Application Dominates Owing to High Use of Condensed Milk in a Variety of Baked Products

On the basis of application, the market is segmented into bakery, confectionery, beverages, dairy products, and others. The bakery segment led globally in 2025 by holding the largest condensed milk application market share. Condensed milk, especially sweetened condensed milk, is recognized as a versatile ingredient that serves multiple purposes simultaneously. This milk, when used in bakery preparation, improves texture, crumb softness, and chewiness. Moreover, it boosts caramelization and browning in baking, which enhances flavor and crust color. Additionally, condensed milk acts as a natural sweetener, as sugar, when used in baking, often causes crystallization and graininess. Thus, such factors contribute to the increased use of evaporated milk in the bakery sector.

The beverages segment is anticipated to grow at a high CAGR of 7.22% during the study period.

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Condensed Milk Market Regional Outlook

Based on region, the market is segmented into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, South America, and the Middle East & Africa.

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Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific dominated the market by holding the largest condensed milk market share in 2025. In this region, condensed milk is strongly ingrained in everyday consumption, particularly kopi, Vietnamese iced coffee, and milk tea. This evaporated milk is widely utilized in festival sweets and home cooking, which improves its utilization rate. Moreover, the expansion of street-food vendors and café culture is another significant factor driving regional growth. Additionally, its easy storage and long shelf life benefit make it an ideal ingredient for a range of innovative and traditional recipes. Additionally, the inclination toward Western-style desserts and growing competition among international and local players has led to a high consumption of evaporated milk.

Europe and North America

Europe and North America are expected to experience significant growth in the future. Europe holds the second-leading position and is anticipated to record a growth rate of 4.48%. The growing trend of home baking and the expansion of e-commerce channels are supporting the market expansion. After Europe, North America ranked third in the global market in 2025. The U.S. is the leading consumer in the region, followed by Canada and Mexico. The expanding processed food products sector, along with the increased production of healthier variants, strengthens the nation’s potential.

South America and the Middle East & Africa

Over the forecast period, South America and the Middle East & Africa are estimated to witness moderate growth in the near term. The rising awareness of evaporated milk, combined with enhanced distribution channels, is likely to promote the market’s momentum.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE

Key Industry Players

Key Players in the Market are investing their Efforts in Launching New Products

Key players in the market include Nestlé S.A., Arla Foods, FrieslandCampina N.V., and others. All players in the global market are aiming to launch new products to cater to the increased demand. Through such launches, enterprises can enhance their market position and revenue generation.

List of Key Condensed Milk Companies Profiled:

• Nestlé S.A. (Switzerland)
• Arla Foods (Denmark)
• FrieslandCampina N.V. (Netherlands)
• Eagle Family Foods Group LLC (U.S.)
• Hochwald Foods Gmbh (Germany)
• Groupe Lactalis S.A. (France)
• Santini Foods, Inc. (U.S.)
• Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (India)
• Prabhat Dairy Ltd. (India)
• Milky Mist (India)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• March 2025: Mali Group, an international dairy firm in the U.S., introduced a durian-flavored condensed milk that can be utilized for preparing ice creams, beverages, and bread. This product is available in an easy-to-use squeeze tube, adding convenience to the consumer’s lifestyle.
• January 2025: Gallow Company, an American dairy ingredients firm, announced the news of completing substantial expansion of its production capacity. The enterprise added an evaporator, which improved the production of industrial sweetened condensed milk.
• July 2020: Nestlé S.A. revealed its latest plant-based condensed milk through its Carnation range. This item is certified by the Vegan Society and is ideal for home baking purposes.
• September 2019: Nestlé S.A., a well-renowned food firm, invested USD 2.10 million to expand the condensed milk factory across Spain. This investment was used to construct two filling lines at the factory.
• January 2019: Lactalis, a French dairy products firm, acquired Prabhat Dairy, a dairy items enterprise in India. Through this acquisition, the company aims to strengthen its position nationwide.

REPORT COVERAGE

The global condensed milk market report includes quantitative and qualitative insights into the market. It also offers a detailed market analysis of sizing and growth rate for all possible market segments. Various key insights presented in the report are an overview of related markets, competitive landscape, recent industry developments such as mergers & acquisitions, the regulatory scenario in critical countries, and global market trends. 

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Report Scope & Segmentation