Autonomous Cars Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Type (Fully Autonomous and Semi-Autonomous), By Vehicle Type (Passenger Cars and Commercial Vehicles), and Regional Forecasts, 2022-2029

The global autonomous cars market size was valued at USD 1.50 billion in 2021. The market is projected to grow from USD 1.63 billion in 2022 to USD 19.96 billion by 2029, exhibiting a CAGR of 42.97% during the forecast period. The global COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented and staggering, with autonomous cars experiencing lower-than-anticipated demand across all regions compared to pre-pandemic levels. Based on our analysis, the global autonomous cars market exhibited a decline of -20.29% in 2020 as compared to 2019.

An autonomous car is a driverless car also known as a self-driving car. It can operate with the requirement of minimal or no human input. Driverless or self-driving cars have become a significant revolution in automation and connectivity technology. Advanced technologies, computers, smartphones, and the internet utilized together in a car provide assistance and drive automation operations.

Moreover, rapid improvement in sensor-processing technologies, adaptive algorithms, high-definition mapping, and the deployment of infrastructure-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-vehicle communication technologies have encouraged key players to develop their production capacities and take vehicle automation to the next level.

COVID-19 IMPACT 

Domestic Production of Semiconductor Chips and Technologies to Boost Market

Pandemic-induced semiconductor chip shortage impacted unevenly across various industries.

Autonomous vehicles rely on various electronic systems and technologies such as automated driving systems, control units, battery management systems, sensors, LiDAR, and others. All these systems are essential and mandatory for autonomous vehicles' efficient and safe working. Therefore, interruptions in the availability of semiconductor chips also affected the launch of autonomous cars, further hampering the market growth.

Factors such as labor-intensive backend processes (assembly and testing) and supply chain disruption for components such as mold compounds and raw materials, including silicon are also affecting the shortage. Some auto companies, including China’s Xpeng Motors that use Nvidia chips have delayed their self-driving development programs due to semi-chip shortage.

In response to that, both the U.S. and European Union aim to increase localized production to reduce dependency on Asian supply chains and address the semiconductor shortage.

For instance, in August 2022, as part of the National Defence Authorization Act (NDAA) FY2021, the Biden administration signed an executive order, the CHIPS for America Act, to alleviate short-term shortages and provide more incentives to encourage U.S. manufacturing.

Several governments and regulatory bodies have introduced long-term plans to reduce the dependency on the small number of semiconductor chip manufacturers in Asia Pacific. For instance, Europe presented the European Chips Act, which the U.S. government passed in 2021 to boost the domestic production of chips. Therefore, initiatives by the government worldwide to increase domestic production of semiconductor chips post-pandemic is likely to influence the autonomous cars market growth in the near future.

LATEST TRENDS

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Increasing Demand for Automated Energy-efficient Vehicles to Favor Growth

The rising adoption of emission-free, fuel-efficient, or energy-efficient vehicles is one of the ongoing trends in the market. The imposition of stringent emission norms has influenced automakers to develop new generation clean energy vehicles such as fuel cell electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and others. Additionally, rising fossil fuel prices due to limited availability are also surging the demand for energy-efficient vehicles, such as electric cars, as an alternative to conventional fossil fuel-powered vehicles.

These vehicles are equipped with a significant level of autonomy and advanced technologies to run the vehicle; hence, they provide improved efficiency through efficient driving and optimized energy consumption. Therefore, increasing demand for highly efficient clean energy autonomous vehicles among the populace worldwide is driving the market growth. Additionally, to cater to the increasing demand for these autonomous vehicles, manufacturers are focused on partnering with autonomous cars technology developers.

Nearly all the leading automakers are actively investing in autonomous technology for its early adoption in their automobiles. For instance, in January 2021, Hyundai revealed they are in talks with Apple to reduce high manufacturing costs in developing Apple’s Autonomous car. Moreover, Alphabet’s self-driving car company Waymo partnered with Chinese automaker Geely to create a fleet of all-electric, self-driving cars. Similarly, other leading automakers have also established strategic partnerships with autonomous vehicle technology startups. Therefore, this rising investment trend of automakers investing in autonomous technology to grab early revenue growth opportunities in the market is anticipated to boost market growth in the near future.

DRIVING FACTORS

Rising Demand for Advanced Automotive Safety to Drive Market Growth

An increasing number of road accidents worldwide due to human error or lack of safety features in automotive is surging the demand for autonomous vehicles. Autonomous vehicles with advanced safety technologies such as parking assistance systems, blind spot detection systems, adaptive cruise control, and others benefit in this situation. According to the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), nearly 32 fatalities occur every day in the U.S. in drunk and driving car crashes, which is one fatality in every 45 minutes.

As per the 2020 annual traffic crash data released by the U.S. DOT’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, in 2020, nearly 38,824 lives were lost in traffic crashes across the U.S. According to the World Health Organization, road accidents are the most significant reason of death for young adults and children aged 5 to 29. Self-driving vehicles have various advantages over traditional vehicles as they are outfitted with modern LiDAR, radar, cameras, sensors, and other advanced technologies for safe driverless operation. Therefore, increasing demand and development of autonomous vehicles to avoid car crashes caused by human error is anticipated to boost the market growth during the forecast period.

Additionally, automakers are focused on developing driverless cars and related technologies that will allow the automobile to become a partner in a drive-by, continuously monitoring the vehicle’s surroundings and taking control of the car in various situations to avoid crashes that occur due to human errors and lack of safety features. All these factors are anticipated to influence market growth in the near future.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

High Complexity and R&D Cost in Adoption of Self-driving Cars to Restrain Growth

Autonomous vehicles consist of over 40 sensors, including LiDAR, RADAR, and cameras that assist in the efficient functioning of the vehicle. These sensors are highly expensive, and their functioning depends on the type of software and hardware used during operational activities. This further increases the cost of the overall system. For instance, the cost of automotive LiDAR is as high as USD 50,000, which adds up to the cost of a vehicle.

Thus, the production and adoption of autonomous vehicles necessitate large investments due to the high cost of components. Furthermore, due to the high cost and complexity of autonomous vehicle technology, the availability of level-4 and level-5 autonomous vehicles for analysis and testing is negligible. Moreover, the design and development of software that is utilized in autonomous vehicles are highly challenging, and the use of level-4 autonomous vehicles is not only capital-intensive but also subject to regulatory compliance.

A fully autonomous car needs to analyze massive quantities of sensor data, which is approximately 100 times greater than that of the data analyzed by the most advanced automobiles available in the market. The complexity of software used in autonomous vehicles is increasing at an exponential rate, with several Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) concurrently operating as part of the software stack. All these factors make self-driving cars expensive and complex to develop, further restraining the market growth.

SEGMENTATION

By Type Analysis

Technology Advancement in Self-driving Cars to Drive Semi-autonomous Segment Growth

Based on type, the market is segmented into fully autonomous and semi-autonomous.

Semi-autonomous dominated the market in 2021 and is also expected to remain dominant during the forecast period. Almost all the new-generation vehicles available in the market consist of semi-autonomous technology for efficient driving. Therefore, the soaring adoption of semi-autonomous type of cars with features, such as ADAS, autopilot, automated vehicle braking and parking systems, and others, is likely to fuel the segment's growth during the forecast period.

The fully autonomous segment accounted for the fastest-growing segment in the market, with a high CAGR. Increasing demand for autonomous vehicles to reduce car crashes, improve road safety by zero human interactions, and eliminate human errors is anticipated to drive the segment growth during the forecast period. Rapid technological advancement in the automotive sector for fully autonomous and emerging new trends in self-driven cars are expected to grow and offer lucrative opportunities for the growth of the fully autonomous segment.

By Vehicle Type Analysis

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Rising Safety Concerns and High Productivity to Drive Passenger Cars Segment Growth

Based on vehicle type, the market is split into passenger cars and commercial vehicles.

Passenger cars segment holds the largest share of the market. People prefer private transport to avoid overburdened public transport. Additionally, increasing demand for passenger cars after the pandemic to maintain social distancing drives the segment growth. Moreover, increasing demand for SUVs with a significant level of autonomy drives the market growth.

Commercial vehicles segment accounts for the fastest-growing segment in the market. Commercial vehicles have mostly fixed paths, and the distance traveled is more than passenger cars, which can create fatigue for drivers. Vehicle autonomy systems will be more suitable in such situations, preventing accidents. Therefore, increasing demand for autonomous commercial vehicles among logistics and transport companies is likely to drive segment growth.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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Asia Pacific held the largest autonomous cars market share in 2021. The region has witnessed heavy growth in adopting autonomous vehicles due to the demand for road safety, efficient traffic flow, compelling transit features, and avoiding road accidents. Increasing demand for transportation efficiency and road safety coupled with efficient traffic flow is anticipated to drive the market growth.

The Europe region holds the second-largest market share in 2021. The region is focused on improving its position in the market by providing early regularization to the adoption of autonomous vehicles. Many European countries have aimed to deploy fully autonomous vehicles and vehicles on the road. This will create heavy demand for autonomous vehicles in Europe, fueling the market growth.

The North America region holds a considerable share of the market in 2021. The region is focused on the regularization of the use of autonomous vehicles with specific requirements. Governments are initiating programs and funding to provide safe, autonomous vehicle deployment. Various government initiatives for promoting the use of autonomous vehicles by providing funding and introducing programs for research and development for the testing of autonomous vehicles are anticipated for the market's growth.

The Rest of the World market accounted for a decent share of the market in 2021. The region is focused on adapting advanced transportation technologies. Rapid infrastructural developments and the growing adoption of newer transit technology in countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, South Africa, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, among others, are providing a positive outlook for the growth of the market.

KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS

With Development in Autonomous Cars, AutoX is the Leading Player in the Market 

AutoX is a leading driverless technology startup backed up by Alibaba. The company specializes in building hardware and software-integrated technology for driverless autonomous cars. In January 2021, AutoX launched a commercial autonomous car system in Shenzhen, China and became one of the first driverless technology companies globally to provide fully driverless mobility services with no safety driver behind the wheel. The company has been continuously expanding and developing its driverless technology. In 2021, the company built a specially dedicated production facility to ramp up autonomous cars production.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• Tesla (U.S.)


• Cruise LLC (U.S.)


• Uber Technologies (U.S.)


• Lyft, Inc. (U.S.)


• WAYMO (U.S.)


• Aptiv (Ireland)


• Baidu (China)


• Didi Chuxing (China)


• Zoox (U.S.)


• AutoX Inc. (U.S.)


• Nuro Inc. (U.S.)


• Volkswagen AG (Germany)


• Lumotive LLC (U.S.)


• Pony.ai (U.S.)


• Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany)


• Autoliv (Sweden)


• Mercedes Benz AG (Germany)


• BYD Company Ltd. (China)


• Ford Motor Company (U.S.)


• Volvo (Sweden)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

In August 2022, Tesla announced that it aims to ready its self-driving technology by the end of the year. The company has been testing its Full Self-driving (FSD) mode since 2020.

In May 2022, Volkswagen’s software business CARIAD announced a deal with Qualcomm for self-driving technology up to level 4. The partnership will enable Volkswagen to use Qualcomm’s system on a chip (SOC), which has been developed explicitly for autonomous vehicles, across all its brands. Based on Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Ride Platform, Cariad has developed up to level 4 autonomous driving function.

In January 2022, Nuro launched its third-generation delivery vehicle named Nuro. The company claimed it to be the most advanced autonomous flagship delivery vehicle. It was designed to carry more deliveries, nearly double the capacity of the previous model. It will also feature customizable and temperature-controlled storage.

In January 2022, Volvo introduced the autonomous driving feature Ride Pilot to its customers in California. Ride Pilot will be accessible as an add-on subscription on the company’s upcoming fully electric models. The autonomous driving software company Zeneact with the help of Volvo Cars’ team of developers along with developers of Luminar has developed this software. The set-up consists of sensors, including Luminar’s cutting-edge Iris LiDAR sensor, which works with the developed software.

In January 2020, Cruise launched its fully autonomous car named Origin, which will not require steering or pedals. The Origin works on level 5 technology of autonomous driving. It is designed for highway speeds and has a lifespan of 1 million miles. The Origin would not be able to be owned as a personal vehicle; it would be used as a taxi under the riding-sharing service provided by Cruise. Cruise is a leading manufacturer of autonomous type of cars in America, which was acquired by General Motors in 2016.

REPORT COVERAGE

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The research report provides a detailed analysis of the market and focuses on key aspects such as leading companies, type, and vehicle type. Besides this, the report offers insights into the market trends and highlights key automotive industry developments. In addition to the factors above, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the growth of the market in recent years.

Report Scope & Segmentation