Autonomous Truck Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Level of Autonomy (Level1, Level 2, Level 3, and Level 4), By Propulsion Type (IC Engine and Electric), By Truck Type (Light-Duty Trucks, Medium-Duty Trucks, and Heavy-Duty Trucks), By Industry (Manufacturing, Construction & Mining, Military, FMCG, and Others), and Regional Forecasts, 2023-2030

The global autonomous truck market size was valued at USD 30.70 billion in 2022. The market is projected to grow from USD 33 billion in 2023 to USD 67.73 billion by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 10.8% during the forecast period.

Autonomous trucks are commercial vehicles that use advanced technologies, such as AI, LiDAR, sensors, and optical cameras, to automate truck transportation with minimum or no human intervention. These trucks are capable of performing various functions that are traditionally carried out by human drivers including acceleration, braking, steering, and navigation. They have the potential to revolutionize the transportation & logistics industry by offering increased efficiency, improved safety, and reduced operational costs.

The rapid progress of sensor technology and software processing has enabled truck manufacturers to introduce varying levels of autonomy to the trucking sector. Self-driving trucks can cause fewer accidents & fatalities, increase operational efficiency for fleet owners (for example, reduced truck downtime) and reduce labor costs. Furthermore, heavy-duty trucks account for a large share of greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollutants. Autonomous features, such as platooning, can reduce fuel consumption. These factors are driving the demand for semi-autonomous and self-driving trucks.

COVID-19 IMPACT

Surging Demand for Autonomous Trucks for E-commerce Logistics Fueled Market Growth

The COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted the automotive sector. Initially, the market witnessed a drop in its growth due to factors, such as the disrupted development of advanced technologies, including autonomous driving and electric vehicles. As a result, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and investors decreased their investment in innovation due to liquidity issues caused by the pandemic. Short to mid-term testing of highly automated trucks was postponed, as was seen with Ford's delay of its autonomous vehicle service launch to 2022. This delay was due to a revenue drop of USD 2 billion in the first quarter of 2020, as reported by the company.

However, government-enforced lockdowns and restrictions on various transportation activities fueled the demand for automated trucks. Due to these restrictions, the e-commerce and logistics sectors witnessed a significant boom, further boosting the demand for fully-autonomous freight vehicles across the world. Additionally, after the initial setback, the sales of electric vehicles, including new generation electric trucks, witnessed a significant boost.

LATEST TRENDS

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Commercial Vehicle Electrification to Drive Market Growth

The ongoing global megatrend of automotive electrification is also influencing the market growth. Increasing demand for emission-free commercial vehicles with advanced safety and driver assistant features for efficient trucking, logistics, and supply chain operations across major industries is anticipated to boost the market growth. Major economies, such as China, the European Union, and the U.S. are enforcing stringent regulations for automotive emission control. For instance, in November 2022, the European Union introduced a new emission standard called Euro VII. As per the new standard, by 2035, the nitric oxide (NOx) emission from cars and vans is predicted to be reduced by 35% and buses & lorries by 56% compared to Euro VI.

Therefore, surging new-generation electric truck sales with a significant level of autonomy are anticipated to boost the market growth in the years to come. Moreover, the focus of fleet managers on deploying an emission-free autonomous fleet of trucks to reduce operation cost and improve efficiency is also anticipated to accelerate the demand for self-driving trucks in the coming years.

DRIVING FACTORS

Growing Focus on Road Safety to Propel Demand for Autonomous Trucks

The adoption of Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) has significantly improved safety on highways, according to a study conducted by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration in collaboration with trucking industry leaders. An example includes J.B. Hunt, a leading for-hire carrier in the U.S., which has equipped 98% of its vehicles with a forward-collision warning system and lane departure warning along with dash cameras on 84% of its class 8 trucks. The implementation of such technologies has enabled a 50% reduction in rear-end crashes and an increase in asset uptime and driver retention. Furthermore, owing to the trucks’ safety benefits and increased demand from drivers, J.B. Hunt plans to deploy a blind spot detection system on its fleets that can help to avert sideswipes and lane change accidents. Hence, these factors are fueling the autonomous truck market growth.

Reduced Emissions and Greater Fuel Efficiency of Automated Trucks to Augment Market Growth

Around 25% of the environmental pollution caused by the transportation sector in the U.S. is attributed to trucking, and fuel consumption accounts for nearly 25 to 40 percent of the total long-haul trucking costs in Europe and North America. Autonomous types of trucks via features such as low RPM runs, greater speed governance, automated manual transmissions, and aerodynamic platooning can improve long-haul fuel economy and directly lead to improved driving performance and emission reductions. Hence, improvement in fuel savings and pollution control is a major factor driving the adoption of driverless trucks.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Inconsistent Regulatory Framework to Restrain Market Growth

The American Transportation Research Institute published a study in January 2020 regarding the role of government authorities in promoting automated trucking. The study indicated that lack of a consistent federal regulatory framework hindered the application of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) in the trucking sector, as states have implemented fragmented policies that limit the use of these trucks for regional or local operations. Specifically, the deployment of these vehicles in interstate commerce is quite low, which is the best potential use case for highly automated trucks owing to fewer obstacles and consistent speeds that can be achieved on long stretches of interstate highways. Hence, the slow development of federal guidelines for autonomous trucking is expected to restrain the growth of the market.

SEGMENTATION

By Level of Autonomy Analysis

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Increasing Demand for Pickup Trucks to Boost Adoption of Level 1 Trucks

By level of autonomy, the market is segmented into level 1, level 2, level 3, and level 4.

The level 1 segment held the largest share of the market in 2022. Demand for pickup trucks equipped with semi-autonomous driving features, such as basic parking assistance and lane departure warning, is increasing in the U.S. Furthermore, truck-related fatalities have continued to increase, specifically in Europe, China, and India, which boosted the adoption of level 1 automated trucks. Hence, these factors are likely to augment the growth of this segment.

Testing of level 4 trucks on public roads, especially in the U.S. and Germany, has increased considerably over the last few years. Additionally, several manufacturers, such as Volvo, Navistar, and Ford, are bypassing level 3 automation and focusing on developing level 4 driverless trucks. Hence, the level 4 segment is anticipated to show significant growth in the market during the forecast period.

By Propulsion Type Analysis

IC Engine Segment to Dominate due to Strong Inclination toward Diesel Trucks Powered by IC Engines

By propulsion type, the market is classified into IC engine and electric.

The IC engine segment is expected to dominate the market over the forecast period. Users involved in long-haul trucking will favor diesel trucks powered by IC engines owing to the lesser battery range of electric trucks. Furthermore, based on the current power density improvements and battery costs, the range expansion of electric trucks is expected to be slow over the next few years.

The electric truck segment is expected to show the fastest growth in the market owing to the introduction of stringent emission regulations, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. To cite an example, the Advanced Clean Truck Regulation was adopted by the California Air Resource Board (CARB) in June 2020, the first of its kind in the U.S. The regulation will increasingly limit the number of class 3 to 8 trucks that can be sold from 2024 onwards. Hence, the electric segment is anticipated to exhibit a higher CAGR during the forecast period.

By Truck Type Analysis

Heavy Duty Trucks to Gain Traction with Rising Shortage of Drivers

By truck type, the market is categorized into light-duty trucks, medium-duty trucks, and heavy-duty trucks.

The heavy-duty trucks segment is anticipated to exhibit a high CAGR owing to the continued shortage of drivers, particularly in the U.S. For instance, a study conducted by the American Trucking Association in October 2021 estimated a shortage of just over 80,000 drivers in 2021. Higher-level automated trucks can alleviate this driver shortage problem and considerably reduce the cost per mile of trucking by eliminating driver wages. These factors are likely to fuel the growth of the heavy-duty trucks segment during the forecast period.

The light-duty trucks segment is expected to show considerable growth in the market owing to the increasing demand for self-driving utility vans and pickup trucks in commercial delivery operations, especially in the U.S.

By Industry Analysis

Demand for Automated Trucks to Increase in Logistics & Transportation of FMCG Products

By industry, the market is categorized into manufacturing, construction & mining, FMCG, military, and others.

The FMCG segment dominated the market in 2022 and is likely to continue its dominance throughout the forecast period. Increasing demand for efficient transportation of FMCG products coupled with the growing adoption of e-commerce platforms post-pandemic is anticipated to drive the segment’s growth during the forecast period. For instance, in November 2021, Walmart started using fully-autonomous trucks to ramp up its grocery business. The company deployed two autonomous box trucks that would be operating without a safety driver for a 7-mile loop every day for 12 hours. Therefore, the adoption of fully-autonomous trucks by these e-commerce platforms is anticipated to boost the segment’s growth in the years to come.

The construction & mining segment is also anticipated to witness a significant growth rate during the forecast period. Major mining companies in Australia, the U.S., and Europe are focused on utilizing fully-autonomous trucks for their mining activities in the pursuit of eliminating casualties and tackling the skilled worker shortage in developed economies. Manufacturing and military segments are also expected to witness a considerable growth rate in the future. This growth is driven by the need to improve the efficiency of transportation, supporting high-risk military missions, and reducing the risk for combat troops in operation.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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Technological Advancements to Drive the North America Market Growth

Regionally, the market is categorized into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, and the rest of the world.

North America is expected to hold a dominant autonomous truck market share throughout the forecast period. The regional market is characterized by the presence of several startups, such as Embark Trucks and Waymo, that have accelerated the adoption of highly automated trucks in freight operations. For instance, in April 2023, Aurora, one of the leading self-driving technology companies, announced its plans to roll out a self-driving trucking service between Dallas and Houston to test its autonomous freight-hauling services. Several major companies and startups are actively developing autonomous trucking technologies and conducting trials in North America. They are investing in advanced sensors, AI algorithms, and connectivity to enable these vehicles to navigate highways and perform various tasks autonomously.

Asia Pacific is expected to exhibit the fastest CAGR over the forecast period owing to the introduction of road safety norms by several countries and rapid advancement of autonomous vehicles in Japan and China, mainly for last-mile delivery and mining trucks. Countries across the region, such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore, are actively investing in the research & development of autonomous vehicle technologies, including autonomous trucks. They recognize the potential benefits of these vehicles in terms of improved efficiency, reduced costs, and enhanced logistics operations. In China, for example, the government has identified autonomous vehicles, including self-driving trucks, as a strategic industry and has set ambitious goals to become a global leader in autonomous driving technology. Chinese companies, such as TuSimple, Pony.ai, and FAW, are already conducting trials and developing autonomous trucking solutions.

The market in Europe is characterized by initiatives, such as the EU-funded ENSEMBLE project that aims to implement multi-brand truck platooning (level 3 automation) in Europe over the next three years to improve traffic safety and fuel economy. Furthermore, the stringency of safety regulations is higher in this region as compared to other regions as Lane Keep Assist (LKA) and advanced emergency braking systems have been made mandatory for all trucks in this region since 2015. These factors are propelling the growth of the market in Europe.

The rest of the world, which covers South America, the Middle Eastern, and African countries, is expected to witness considerable CAGR in the upcoming years owing to governments’ focus on creating a knowledge-based economy, developing human capital, and digitalization. The adoption of self-driving trucks will reduce the region’s reliance on emigrant labor and improve road safety.

KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Daimler AG to Emerge as One of Leading Market Players

Key players in the global market include Continental AG, AB Volvo, Daimler AG, and Caterpillar, and others. Almost all the major players are focused on strategic partnerships for the development and early deployment of a fully automated truck fleet. Daimler AG is expected to hold a significant share of the market owing to the company’s several strategic partnerships and investment initiatives in recent years aimed at accelerating the series production of highly automated trucks.

For instance, Daimler Truck’s subsidiary, Torc Robotics, announced the acquisition of Algolux Inc. The acquisition is anticipated to support the company’s goal to bring SAE level 4 self-driving trucks into series production in the U.S. within this decade. The company is significantly investing in its R&D operations to implement its automated driving strategies and increasing infrastructure to fuel the cost-effective production of SAE level 4 trucks.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• TuSimple, Inc. (U.S.)


• Waymo LLC (U.S.)


• Embark Trucks (U.S.)


• Tesla (U.S.)


• Caterpillar (U.S.)


• AB Volvo (Sweden)


• Daimler AG (Germany)


• Continental AG (Germany)


• Robert Bosch GmbH (Germany)


• NVIDIA Corporation (U.S.)


• Aptiv (Ireland)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• May 2023 – Robert Bosch GmbH and PlusAI, Inc. introduced driver-assist truck tech at the Advanced Clean Transportation Expo. The companies are collaborating to develop and deploy advanced driver assistance features in commercial vehicles.


• April 2023 – Kodiak Robotics, Inc., one of the leading autonomous trucking companies, unveiled its fifth-generation self-driving truck hardware platform that increases GPU processing power and sensor redundancy.


• April 2023 –  Aurora, one of the leading self-driving technology companies, announced its plans to roll out a self-driving trucking service between Dallas and Houston to test its autonomous freight-hauling services by the end of 2024.


• June 2022 – Waymo and Uber announced their partnership to develop self-driving trucks. The companies are teaming up to accelerate the adoption of self-driving trucks. Waymo will integrate Uber Freight into the technology that powers its autonomous big rigs.


• February 2022 –  Waymo announced its plans to start testing its self-driving trucks in Texas in partnership with CH Robinson, one of the leading global logistics service providers.

REPORT COVERAGE

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The autonomous truck market research report provides a detailed market analysis and focuses on key aspects such as leading companies, vehicle types, design, and technology. Besides this, the report offers insights into the latest market trends and highlights key industry developments. In addition to the factors mentioned above, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the growth of the market in recent years.

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