French Fries Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Analysis, By Product (Fresh, Frozen), By End-use (Food Service, Retail), and Regional Forecast, 2022-2029

The global French fries market size was valued at USD 15.00 billion in 2021 and is projected to grow from USD 16.20 billion in 2022 to USD 22.29 billion by 2029, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.7% during the forecast period. The global COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented and staggering, with French fries experiencing lower-than-anticipated demand across all regions compared to pre-pandemic levels. Based on our analysis, the global market exhibited a decline of 2.37 % in 2020 as compared to 2019.

French fries are the most sustainable potato products globally that are conventionally produced by cutting potato strips from fresh potatoes, which thereafter are deep fried. Additionally, potatoes are known to be a significant ingredient in most cuisines and therefore are consumed by every inhabitant in maximum numbers. Moreover, fries, an eminent potato product category, are measured as one of the fastest-growing snacks. The product is available not just in quick service restaurants, such as McDonald's or KFC but also in the retail channel that includes supermarkets & hypermarkets, and convenience stores.

COVID-19 IMPACT

Supply Chain Disruption Amid COVID-19 Pandemic to Affect Market Growth

The pandemic has severely affected the food and beverage industry by decreasing global consumption of the market. Most food service outlets, such as quick service restaurants and fast food kiosks, remain shut, resulting in a vast decrease in consumption. Also, companies that turn potatoes into fresh and frozen French fries are discontinuing or reducing production since they lack adequate space to store processed potatoes. Moreover, while the food remains a necessary item, it has witnessed a considerable decline in demand for French fries due to the COVID-19 outbreak, resulting in the closure of restaurants. Additionally, large Southeast Asian fast-food chains are being hit by a shortage of fries since disruption in supply-chain exhibited slow shipments of frozen food products from Europe and the U.S.

LATEST TRENDS

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Growing Westernization of Developing Markets to Propel the Market Growth

Rapid urbanization, globalization, income, and economic growth of emerging regions such as Asia Pacific and the Middle East are leading to a dramatic shift toward convenient and on-the-go food. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), food consumption patterns exhibit signs of convergence toward a western diet. The rapid growth in the number of western-style fast food chains, such as KFC, Dairy Queen Grill & Chill, and McDonald’s outlets globally, particularly in Asian countries, reinforces the above trend. Moreover, increased adoption of western food such as fries, wedges, and other processed potato products among consumers in the developing region is propelling the market growth. In addition, the per capita consumption of fries in emerging areas is rapidly increasing owing to an upsurge in fast food and quick service restaurants coupled with growing penetration of online food delivery, significantly expanding the market.

DRIVING FACTORS

Increasing Demand for Ready-to-Eat Food to Boost the Market Growth

The growing consumption of ready-to-cook and ready-to-eat food products has had a substantial positive impact on the market globally. Ease of use, functionality, and quick delivery are other significant factors propelling the product demand. Moreover, increasing consumer inclination toward convenient foods has boosted the need for the industry. Nowadays, consumers are willing to pay a premium price for high-quality, suitable foods. Easy accessibility of distinguished fries and other frozen food products has influenced the buying patterns of consumers regarding dietary merchandise, rendering a firm place for frozen foods in their list of daily consumables. Thus, such factors, in turn, are expected to prompt the market soon.

Rising Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) and Online Food Delivery to Promote the Market Growth

French fries are considered the most consumed snack food ordered in quick service restaurants and online retailers such as Uber Eats, Food Panda, and Swiggy. According to Lamb Weston, in 2020, over 85% of all variants of fries were procured at quick-service and full-service restaurants, with another 15% purchased at retail. The benefit of QSR is that it is specifically designed for consumers who have less time and demand quick service. It not only caters to consumer’s needs who offer dine-in but also provides services such as quick home delivery and drive-through. For instance, the number of McDonald’s outlets globally has increased from 37,855 in 2018 to 38,000 in 2022. Thus, the growth and development of QSR and online food delivery have significantly promoted the French fries market growth.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Rising Awareness Regarding Healthy and Nutritious Foods to Restrain the Market Growth

Growing consumer demand for healthy and nutritious food has shifted consumers' preference from fried and processed foods. Fries have immense salt and fat content that could raise the risk of cardiovascular diseases. Also, larger consumption of fries could lead to the risk of obesity, high blood pressure, and diabetes. According to the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 2019, a study conducted on around 4,500 adults stated fries more than twice a week could double the risk of early death. Other side effects of consuming fried food lead to bloating, cramping, nausea, and diarrhea. Therefore, all such factors are driving consumers to shift toward healthy eating patterns, which, in turn, will restrain the market growth.

SEGMENTATION

By Product Analysis

Rising Demand for Frozen Fries Products to Trigger the Demand

Based on product, the market is bifurcated into fresh and frozen. Frozen segment holds the largest market share due to higher shelf life and can be easily prepared compared to fresh-cut fries. The product is considered one of the most readily available snack foods in distinguished sizes, flavors, and shapes. Convenience, higher shelf life, and ready-to-cook while serving and sustaining the same taste and quality are some significant factors propelling the growth of the frozen French fries industry.

By End-use Analysis

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Food Service to Hold Substantial Market Share Owing to Increasing Quick Service Restaurants

On the basis of end-use, the market is classified into food service and retail. Food service segment accounted for the largest market in 2021. Factors, such as increasing fast food franchises, quick service restaurants, and the growing purchasing power of the working population, have surged the demand for the food service segment in the market.

The retail segment exhibits the fastest growth in the global market. With the closure of traditional food service outlets, products purchased through supermarkets and hypermarkets and online modes have grown strongly, resulting in the increased demand for the product during the forecast period. Moreover, consumers are now inclined toward food delivery. According to a survey by Toluna in 2020, 98% of respondents claimed to have ordered food delivery or takeaway channels during the lockdown period. Such factors are expected to increase the demand for the retail segment in the foreseeable future.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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Based on geography, the global market is studied across North America, South America, Asia Pacific, Europe, and the Middle East & Africa.

North America was the largest market in 2021. The region is one of the prominent consumers globally. The growth is mainly attributed to an increase in the consumption of convenient and ready-to-eat food products and a growing number of quick-service restaurants in the U.S. such as Five Guys, Freddy, and Whataburger. As per QSR magazine, the total units for the said restaurants increased since 2019 were 14 and 20. 

According to Lamb Weston, the company caters to a significant share of the fries market in the region. In addition, the company also invested USD 415 million to modernize its French fry processing production facility in Idaho, U.S.

Emerging countries in the Asia Pacific region, such as China, India, and Japan, have contributed to the growth and expansion of the market. The dietary preferences and patterns of consumers of emerging countries are altering with the rapidly transforming lifestyles and increased westernization. Furthermore, the demand is expected to witness substantial gains owing to the growing preferences of consumers looking out for convenient and ready-to-eat eatables coupled with increasing consumers' perception toward procuring frozen snack products. Moreover, companies are constantly inventing and growing their product portfolio to meet consumer needs.

European countries, such as the U.K. and Germany, accounted for a significant share due to high per capita consumption of potato products such as fries. Upsurge in quick service and fast food restaurants, along with growing consumer inclination toward on-the-go food, further boosts the market growth. In countries, such as the U.K., people consume French fries in several variants, from thick to thin, accompanied by a brown sauce, ketchup, and mayonnaise.

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The South America market has grown significantly over the last decade. The demand for the market is primarily elevated among consumers residing in urban cities across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and others. The region is expected to exhibit significant gains on account of the increased footprint of operators, such as Food Panda and Uber Eats, most of which continue to grow. Furthermore, with the closure of food service outlets across the region due to the impact of COVID-19, consumers are now inclining more toward food delivery and drive-through than restaurant dining. Therefore, all such factors are projected to drive market growth over the forecast period.

KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Global Expansion and New Product Variations are Fueling the Market Growth

The market is fragmented, with many small and large players and manufacturers operating worldwide in different countries. The industry holds tremendous growth opportunities to increase in the coming years, owing to rapidly growing fast-food franchises among consumers. Market players are also focusing on product launches with a focus on regional or local specific tastes and preferences to build the consumer base. Furthermore, the product is evolving to meet consumers' increasing demand for ready-to-eat and convenience food to facilitate an on-the-go lifestyle.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• McCain Foods Limited (Canada)


• J.R. Simplot Company (U.S.)


• Lamb Weston (U.S.)


• Farm Frites International B.V. (Netherlands)


• Aviko (Netherlands)


• Ore-Ida (U.S.)


• Cascadian Farm Organics (U.S.)


• Alexia Foods (U.S.)


• Checkers Rally’s (U.S.)


• Arby’s IP Holder (U.S.)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• November 2022- Lamb Weston Co. recently launched a novel potato-based product in Belgium and the Netherlands in partnership with Sergio Herman: Atelier-Frites. The fast-casual food concept, Frites Atelier established the product with Lamb Weston Co. to ensure growth in scale, make Frites Atelier-Frites accessible to restaurants, and allow chefs to serve these exclusive Frites to their guests in a unique way.


• February 2022 –Simplot Food Group, a division of J.R. Simplot Co. and Kraft Heinz, made a new agreement to select Boise, Idaho, as the exclusive producer and supplier of the Ore-Ida, which is owned by Kraft Heinz. This agreement is done for a business to produce greater efficiency via vertical integration, including supplying potatoes for the brand beginning with the 2023-24 crop season.


• January 2022: Simplifine, a food processing company based in Kenya, has expanded by adding an Individual Quick Freezing processing line to produce frozen French fries. The expansion will help the company to serve the broader base of Kenyan consumers with frozen fries. In addition, this development has helped the company to enter the frozen food segment.


• January 2021: Aviko, a Netherland-based manufacturer of chips and value-added potato products, launched frozen potato range such as New Super Crunch Julienne Fries and New Bistro Garlic and Herb Wedges. The New Super Crunch Julienne Fries are frozen fries and gluten-free.


• February 2019: McCain Foods expanded its French fries processing capacity in Washington, U.S. The company invested USD 300 million for a conventional and battered processing line that will double the production in the future.

REPORT COVERAGE

An Infographic Representation of French Fries Market

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The research report analyzes the market in-depth and highlights crucial aspects such as key players/companies, products, and end-use areas. The report also provides the global market overview, market share and growth rates, market competitiveness, and the frozen fries market size details. Besides this, the research report covered insights into the French Fries industry trends and competitive landscape highlighting key competitors' significant industry developments. In addition to the aspects mentioned earlier, the report encompasses several factors contributing to the market's growth in recent years.

Report Scope & Segmentation