Influenza Vaccine Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Type (Inactivated and Live Attenuated), By Valency (Quadrivalent and Trivalent), By Age Group (Pediatric and Adults), By Distribution Channel (Hospital & Retail Pharmacies, Government Suppliers, and Others), and Regional Forecast, 2022-2029

The global influenza vaccine market size was valued at USD 7.02 billion in 2021 and is projected to grow from USD 7.54 billion in 2022 to USD 13.58 billion by 2029, at a CAGR of 8.8% during the forecast period. Based on our analysis, the global market exhibited a growth of 35.1% in 2020 as compared to 2019. The global COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented and staggering, with influenza vaccine experiencing higher-than-anticipated demand across all regions compared to pre-pandemic levels. 

Every year, regional epidemics and outbreaks that result in thousands of deaths are caused by influenza viruses. According to the data published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2022, it was reported that around 3.0-5.0 million severe influenza cases were recorded, leading to 650,000 deaths across the world. An annual change in the vaccine strain is required to keep up with the global influenza virus strain attributed to the virus’s shifting nature. The increasing prevalence of influenza epidemics and seasonal outbreaks will increase product sales during the projected period.

There are numerous licensed seasonal influenza vaccines recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other governmental organizations to help fight the disease in the current market scenario. Further, governments are advising people to get vaccinated early to provide maximum protection during the flu season. Moreover, pharmaceutical companies are continually facing new challenges in developing a suitable vaccine against a particular strain. Therefore, the rising demand for effective flu vaccines is anticipated to drive the global market for influenza vaccine.

COVID-19 IMPACT

Industry Growth Favored by the Increasing Uptake of Vaccines amid COVID-19 Crisis

The worldwide routine immunization programs and campaigns carried out in developing and developed countries are impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. However, factors including pressure from health departments and the expansion of government programs offering free flu doses increased the vaccination rate during the pandemic. Additionally, growing awareness among the public about the higher risk of getting infected with COVID-19 if the flu weakens the immune system is another factor contributing to the uptake of flu vaccines.

According to the data published by American Medical Association (AMA) in 2021, around 9.0% increase has been observed in flu vaccinations during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York and other 10 states in the U.S. compared to the previous years. Further, Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) processed around 19.0 million vaccine doses in 2020, an increase of almost 5.0 million compared to 2019.

However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the increasing focus on developing combination vaccines, mRNA vaccines, and others is offering various opportunities in the market. The development of a combination vaccine for COVID-19 and influenza virus would help reduce time and manufacturing cost, thus ramping up production.

For instance, in May 2021, Duke University, U.S. researchers developed an mRNA-based COVID-19 and flu combination vaccine to protect an individual against both viruses simultaneously. Also, the major players in the market reported an increase in their revenues attributed to the increase in sales of vaccines during 2021. All these factors were responsible for the influenza vaccine market growth during 2020-2021.

LATEST TRENDS

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Inclusion of Advanced and Effective Flu Vaccines in Immunization Programs to Aid Growth

Growing prevalence of influenza disease worldwide has led to the implementation of different strategies by various governments to boost the uptake of flu vaccines in their respective countries. Nowadays, greater awareness among the population with respect to infectious diseases has led to the implementation of vaccines through immunization programs for the prevention of influenza in developing and low income countries.

Developing countries have revised their immunization programs and included compulsory flu vaccination in the annual program for all age groups. For instance, in collaboration with the Washington State University Global Health Program in March 2021, the Kenya Ministry of Health’s National Vaccines Immunization Program initiated a vaccination drive in Mombasa and Nakuru counties of Kenya. Under the program, children aged 6 -23 months were immunized for free.

Such initiatives are anticipated to surge the demand for flu vaccines resulting in robust market growth during the forecast period.

DRIVING FACTORS

Adoption of Influenza Vaccines Due to Increasing Government Support for Immunization

Expanding government support and focus on influenza vaccination is one of the essential factors influencing the global market. Monitoring flu vaccine availability, distribution, and delivery requires national and international surveillance. In association with other governments, the World Health Organizations constantly monitors the demand and conducts immunization programs globally to minimize the vaccine's unmet need.

• In October 2020, the France government announced the launch of a flu vaccine campaign to protect the nation from another epidemic amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The vaccines for flu were prioritized for individuals in the age group of 65 years and above, pregnant women, and those having respiratory illness.

Organizations such as WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the health ministries of several countries are helping keep track of chronic diseases. Combined with this, according to several published articles and news, Asian countries have started to roll out early influenza vaccination programs emphasizing the reduction of flu and COVID-19 cases simultaneously. Therefore, active government support is expected to bolster the market’s growth rate over the forecast period.

Robust R&D Investments with Strong Pipeline Candidates to Drive Market Growth

The increasing research and development investments by leading market players, such as CSL Limited, Sanofi, and GlaxoSmithKline plc, for expanding manufacturing capabilities and focus on launching new vaccines are responsible for boosting the market further.

• In November 2020, CSL Limited announced plans to construct a new biotech manufacturing facility in Australia.

This, along with the strong pipeline of vaccines, and the growing government funding have facilitated the launch of therapeutically effective vaccines. Also, pharmaceutical companies are focusing on investing in R&D to launch new potential vaccines.

• In April 2022, Novavax, Inc., announced the initial results from the Phase 1/2 clinical trial of its COVID-19-Influenza Combination Vaccine, stating the good tolerability and consistency of the pipeline candidate.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Longer Timeline for Vaccine Production to Limit Growth

Establishing the safety, quality, and efficacy of a novel vaccine is a huge procedure that typically takes around 10-15 years to complete. Complexities in vaccine research, clinical development, and regulatory requirements are the three main causes of the lengthy timelines. There are considerable regional differences across the world in the regulatory frameworks for clinical trials. Therefore, this might cause significant delays in the creation of new vaccinations.

According to an article by the American Council on Science and Health (ACSH) in 2020, the overall success rate for vaccines is around 33.4%.

Moreover, data from different countries/regions is often requested for regulatory approval. However, many countries have different labeling requirements coupled with stretched timelines, which adds further complexity to the process of conducting clinical trials across the globe. Therefore, the impact of stringent regulatory requirements coupled with longer duration for conductance of clinical trials is anticipated to hamper the product development.

SEGMENTATION

By Type Analysis

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Effectiveness Offered by Inactivated Products to Contribute to a Leading Position

On the basis of type, the market is classified into inactivated and live attenuated.

The inactivated segment is estimated to hold the most dominant share of the global market. The demand for inactivated vaccines in developing and developed countries is due to the increasing focus of industrialists, as these are standardized according to the specific virus strain. This characteristic of the vaccines helps minimize the flu in less time and revert positive effects. The increasing demand, coupled with the high prevalence of influenza, is responsible for the highest CAGR of the segment during the forecast period.

• According to the data published by Elsevier B.V. in 2022, inactivated Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine (QIV) given to children in the age group 6-35 months showed a strong antibody response even after 12 months of primary vaccination. Further, it lowered the incidence of influenza A/B infection.

On the other hand, live attenuated vaccines are anticipated to grow at a slower rate due to numerous challenges faced by companies in vaccine development and approval. Also, live attenuated vaccine is not recommended for some patients such as pregnant women, people with asthma, and weak immune systems.

By Valency Analysis

Growing Efficacy of Quadrivalent Vaccines to Exhibit the Highest CAGR

Based on valency, the market is segmented into quadrivalent and trivalent.

The quadrivalent segment accounted for the highest market share due to greater demand for the product. The sales have pushed up in the emerging nations to meet the immunization targets set by governments to shield against influenza outbreaks. Additionally, the launch of novel vaccines has also contributed to the expansion of the quadrivalent segment. Further, safety and immunogenicity properties coupled with potential quadrivalent pipeline candidates ensured a higher CAGR during the forecast period.

• In June 2020, SINOVAC obtained a production license for quadrivalent influenza vaccine from the China National Medical Products Administration (NMPA). This approval authorized the company to manufacture vaccines in its production capacity and distribute its product in the market.

On the other hand, trivalent vaccines are expected to record a smaller share in this market owing to the preference for trivalent over quadrivalent vaccines. This is limiting the trivalent vaccine availability.

By Age Group Analysis

High Influenza Infection Rates among Children Owing to Demand for Pediatric Vaccines

On the basis of age group, the market has been segmented into pediatric and adults.

The pediatric segment is expected to register a higher CAGR among the age group segment. This dominance is attributable to the higher vaccination doses provided to newborns, infants, and children to shield them from an early age against influenza disease. WHO as well as CDC implemented immunization strategies such as the provision of vaccines at an early age as well as to every child globally. A high increase in influenza infection and frequency rates among young children has led to various strategies. CDC also states that since 2010, flu-related hospitalizations among children have also increased the demand for higher infant age group pediatric vaccines. Furthermore, population increase in emerging countries, such as China and India, has led to the increasing demand for pediatric vaccines, thus propelling the market growth.

Vaccination for adults has also become mandatory to minimize the hospitalizations and deaths caused due to influenza. According to the data published by CDC in 2021, it is estimated that approximately 70.0% to 85.0% of seasonal influenza-related deaths occur in people aged 65 and above. Adult vaccines hold a significant market share in this market due to the government's rise in immunization programs and the high vaccine dose procurement by GAVI, PAHO, and UNICEF. In addition, the immunization coverage provision has further led to an increase in the geriatric population getting vaccinated, thus increasing the demand for adult vaccines.

By Distribution Channel Analysis

Dominance of Hospitals & Retail Pharmacies Owing to Increased Immunization Rates

Based on distribution channel, the market is classified into hospital & retail pharmacies, government suppliers, and others.

Hospital & retail pharmacies generated the highest revenue among the distribution channel segment in 2021. This leading position is attributable to the fact that vaccination is generally preferred and conducted at smaller institutions. In addition, the large vaccine supply from hospitals is expected to generate a high market value in the forthcoming years. Therefore, the hospital & retail pharmacies segment is also anticipated to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

On the other hand, the government suppliers segment is expected to hold a significant share as governmental organizations, through their vaccination programs, help immunize individuals globally. Moreover, international health organizations are procuring a large volume of vaccination doses and supplies at a cost-effective or no cost to all the regions covered under these organizations. The growing vaccination programs will further help in generating comparatively higher market value in the projected period.

• For example, the NHS offers free flu vaccines for people aged 65 years and above. Also, they provide free vaccinations to people with certain conditions such as diabetes, heart failure, asthma, and pregnant women.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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North America generated a revenue of USD 3.76 billion in 2021, marking the dominant position in the global market. The rapid launch of effective products, coupled with technologically advanced vaccine manufacturing systems across the region, is expected to drive market growth in the region. Besides, the increasing influenza prevalence and the high sales of vaccines are further expected to fuel the market's growth in North America.

• According to the data published by the World Health Organization (WHO), around 37.2 million influenza cases were identified in 2021 in the U.S.

Asia Pacific is expected to register a higher CAGR during the forecast period. The increasing number of government initiatives to provide flu vaccines and create awareness about influenza is anticipated to drive market growth across the region. Also, the rising population across the region in countries, such as China and India, and the demand for effective vaccines leading to higher sales are expected to boost the market growth.

• In May 2021, the Health Minister of Australia launched the National Flu Vaccination Program with the objective to immunize Australians. Through this vaccination program, 20.0 million vaccine doses have been made available through pharmacies, GPs, and flu clinics.

Europe held the second leading position in the global market. This is attributable to the expansion of vaccination coverage for high-risk people leading to higher immunization rates among the European population.

• For example, in December 2020, CSL Limited demonstrated an analytical review of the company’s MF59-adjuvanted Trivalent Influenza Vaccine (aTIV) at the European Scientific Working Group on Influenza (ESWI) virtual conference. The results indicated the effectiveness of aTIV for adults over 65 years and older.

Latin America and the Middle East & Africa regions are expected to account for significant growth during the forecast period. This is attributable to the rising awareness of influenza virus and increasing government efforts to get everyone vaccinated, thereby fueling the market growth.

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• For example, the Federal Health Ministry announced that more than 32.0 million doses of influenza vaccines would be administered for the 2021–2022 flu season in Mexico.

KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Strong Product Portfolio of Key Competitors to Dominate the Market

Sanofi, a leading biopharmaceutical company, dominated the influenza vaccine market share. The company focuses on establishing new manufacturing facilities and expanding its geographic footprint. In March 2021, Sanofi announced plans to invest USD 736.9 million and build a new vaccine manufacturing facility in Canada. This facility extended the company’s supply of influenza vaccines to Canada, the U.S., and Europe and increased the production capacity of Fluzone high-dose quadrivalent vaccine.

Other companies, such as CSL Limited, GlaxoSmithKline plc, and AstraZeneca, among others, have their products marketed globally. Additionally, factors such as the growing efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and the surging vaccination rates are the primary focus of the market players.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• GlaxoSmithKline plc (U.K.)


• Sanofi (France)


• AstraZeneca (U.K.)


• CSL Limited (Australia)


• BIKEN Co., Ltd. (Japan)


• Abbott (U.S.)


• SINOVAC (China)


• Viatris Inc. (U.S.)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• March 2022 – Seqirus announced the approval of Flucelvax quadrivalent, a cell-based influenza vaccine for individuals in the age group of two years and older. This approval by Health Canada made children in the age group of 2 to 18 years eligible for these vaccines.


• September 2021 – Sanofi acquired Translate Bio, a clinical-stage mRNA therapeutics company, for the development of new and seasonal vaccines for influenza.


• February 2021 – GlaxoSmithKline plc expanded a pre-existing collaboration with Vir Biotechnology with an aim to develop monoclonal antibodies for the prevention and treatment of influenza.


• January 2021 – ModernaTX, Inc. announced that the company has planned to utilize mRNA technology to develop and manufacture influenza, HIV, and Nipah virus vaccines.


• February 2020 – BioDiem announced the approval of Changchun BCHT Biotechnology Co (BCHT)’s LAIV vaccine by the Chinese National Medical Products Administration (NMPA).


• February 2020 – Abbott launched a new inactivated quadrivalent vaccine for use in children below three years of age. This new launch expanded the company’s established pharmaceutical portfolio and the spread of flu vaccines to a critical market such as India.

REPORT COVERAGE

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The research report provides a detailed influenza vaccine market analysis. It focuses on key aspects such as leading companies, products, and distribution channels. Besides this, it offers insights into the market trends and highlights key industry developments. In addition to the factors mentioned above, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the market growth in recent years.

Report Scope & Segmentation