Influenza Vaccine Market Size, Share & COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Type (Inactivated and Live Attenuated), By Valency (Quadrivalent and Trivalent), By Age Group (Pediatric and Adults), By Distribution Channel (Hospital & Retail Pharmacies, Government Suppliers, and Others), and Regional Forecast, 2023-2030

The global influenza vaccine market size was valued at USD 7.47 billion in 2022 and the market is projected to grow from USD 7.97 billion in 2023 to USD 14.35 billion by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 8.8% during the forecast period.

Every year, regional epidemics and outbreaks that result in thousands of deaths are caused by influenza viruses. According to data published by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2022, around 3.0 to 5.0 million severe influenza cases were recorded, leading to 650,000 deaths across the globe. The increasing prevalence of seasonal outbreaks and epidemics is projected to drive the product sales during the forecast period.

There are numerous licensed seasonal influenza vaccines recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), World Health Organization (WHO), and other governmental organizations to help fight the disease in the current market scenario. Further, government agencies are advising people to get vaccinated early to provide maximum protection during the flu season. Moreover, pharmaceutical companies are continually facing new challenges in developing a suitable vaccine against a particular strain. Therefore, the rising demand for influenza vaccine is anticipated to drive the market.

COVID-19 IMPACT 

Industry Growth Favored by the Increasing Uptake of Vaccines amid COVID-19 Crisis

The worldwide routine immunization programs and campaigns carried out in developing and developed countries are impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. However, factors including pressure from health departments and the expansion of government programs offering free doses increased the vaccination rate during the pandemic. Additionally, growing awareness among the public about the higher risk of getting infected with COVID-19 if the flu weakens the immune system is another factor contributing to the uptake of vaccines.

According to data published by the American Medical Association (AMA) in 2021, around 9.0% increase has been observed in influenza vaccinations during the COVID-19 pandemic in New York and other 10 states in the U.S. compared to the previous years. Further, Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) processed around 19.0 million vaccine doses in 2020, an increase of almost 5.0 million compared to 2019.

However, due to the coronavirus pandemic, the increasing focus on developing combination vaccines, mRNA vaccines, and others is offering various opportunities in the market. The development of a combination vaccine for COVID-19 and influenza virus would help reduce time and manufacturing cost, thus ramping up production.

For instance, in May 2021, Duke University researchers developed an mRNA-based COVID-19 and flu combination vaccine to protect an individual against both viruses simultaneously. Also, the major players in the market reported an increase in their revenues attributed to the increase in sales of vaccines during 2021. All these factors were responsible for the influenza vaccine market growth during post pandemic.

LATEST TRENDS

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Inclusion of Advanced and Effective Vaccines in Immunization Programs 

Growing prevalence of influenza worldwide has led to the implementation of different strategies by various governments to boost the uptake of vaccines in their respective countries. Nowadays, greater awareness among the population with respect to infectious diseases has led to the implementation of vaccines through immunization programs for the prevention of conditions in developing and low income countries.

Developing countries have revised their immunization programs and included compulsory vaccination in the annual program for all age groups. For instance, in collaboration with the Washington State University Global Health Program in March 2021, the Kenya Ministry of Health’s National Vaccines Immunization Program initiated a vaccination drive in Mombasa and Nakuru counties of Kenya. Under the program, children aged 6-23 months were immunized for free. Such initiatives are anticipated to surge the demand for these vaccines resulting in robust market growth during the forecast period.

DRIVING FACTORS

Rising Adoption of Influenza Vaccines Due to Increasing Government Support for Immunization

Expanding government support and focus on influenza vaccination is one of the essential factors influencing the global market. Monitoring vaccine delivery, distribution, and availability requires national and international surveillance. In association with other governments, the World Health Organization constantly monitors the demand and conducts immunization programs globally to minimize the vaccine's unmet need.

• In October 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), along with the National Foundation for Infectious Disease (NFID), launched a digital campaign, “Help Them Fight Flu,” in order to raise awareness among the parents to vaccinate their children against flu.

Organizations, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), WHO’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), and the health ministries of several countries are helping keep track of chronic diseases. Combined with this, Asian countries have started to roll out early influenza vaccination programs emphasizing the reduction of influenza and COVID-19 cases simultaneously. Therefore, active government support is expected to bolster the market growth rate over the forecast period.

Robust R&D Investments with Strong Pipeline Candidates to Drive Market Growth

The increasing research and development investments by leading market players, such as CSL Limited, Sanofi, and GlaxoSmithKline plc, for expanding manufacturing capabilities and focus on launching new vaccines are responsible for boosting the market further.

• In March 2021, Sanofi invested USD 714.3 million to establish a new vaccine manufacturing facility in Canada in order to increase the supply of its flu vaccines in the U.S., Canada, and Europe.

This, along with the strong pipeline of vaccines, and the growing government funding have facilitated the launch of therapeutically effective vaccines. Also, pharmaceutical companies are focusing on investing in R&D to launch new potential vaccines.

• In April 2022, Novavax, Inc., announced the initial results from the Phase 1/2 clinical trial of its COVID-19-Influenza Combination Vaccine, stating the good tolerability and consistency of the pipeline candidate.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Longer Timeline for Vaccine Production to Limit Market Growth

Establishing the efficacy, quality, and safety of a novel vaccine is a huge procedure that typically takes around 10-15 years to complete. Complexities in clinical development, vaccine research, and regulatory requirements are the three main causes of the lengthy timelines. There are considerable regional differences across the world in the regulatory frameworks for clinical trials. Therefore, this might cause significant delays in the creation of new vaccinations.

According to an article by the American Council on Science and Health (ACSH), the overall success rate for vaccines is around 33.4%.

Moreover, data from different countries or regions are often required for regulatory approval. However, there are different labeling requirements in many countries along with stretched timelines, which further adds complexity to the process of conducting clinical studies worldwide. Thus, the longer duration for conducting clinical trials and stringent regulatory requirements are anticipated to impede market growth.

SEGMENTATION

By Type Analysis

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Effectiveness Offered by Inactivated Products to Contribute to a Leading Position

On the basis of type, the market is classified into inactivated and live attenuated.

The inactivated segment is estimated to hold the dominant market share. The demand for inactivated vaccines in developing and developed countries is due to the increasing focus of industrialists, as these are standardized according to the specific virus strain. The increasing demand, coupled with the high prevalence of influenza, is responsible for the highest CAGR of the segment during the forecast period.

• According to the data published by Elsevier B.V. in 2022, inactivated Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine (QIV) given to children in the age group 6-35 months showed a strong antibody response even after 12 months of primary vaccination. Further, it lowered the incidence of influenza A/B infection.

On the other hand, live attenuated segment is anticipated to grow at a slower rate due to numerous challenges faced by companies in vaccine development and approval. Also, live attenuated vaccine is not recommended for some patients such as pregnant women, people with asthma, and weak immune systems.

By Valency Analysis

Quadrivalent Vaccines to Ace the Market Due to Growing Efficacy

Based on valency, the market is segmented into quadrivalent and trivalent.

The quadrivalent segment dominated the market in 2022 due to greater demand for the product. The sales have escalated in emerging as well as developed nations to meet the immunization targets set by governments to shield against influenza outbreaks. Additionally, the launch of novel vaccines has also contributed to the expansion of the quadrivalent segment. Further, safety and immunogenicity properties coupled with potential quadrivalent pipeline candidates ensured a higher CAGR during the forecast period.

On the other hand, trivalent vaccines are expected to record a smaller share in the market owing to the preference for trivalent over quadrivalent vaccines. This is limiting the trivalent vaccine availability.

By Age Group Analysis

High Infection Rates among Children Owing to Demand for Pediatric Vaccines

On the basis of age group, the market is segmented into pediatric and adults.

The pediatric segment is expected to register a higher CAGR among the age group segment. The dominance is attributable to the higher vaccination doses provided to newborns, infants, and children to shield them from an early age against influenza disease. The World Health Organization (WHO) as well as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) implemented immunization strategies such as the provision of vaccines at an early age as well as to every child globally. A high increase in influenza infection and frequency rates among young children has led to various strategies. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) also states that since 2010, flu-related hospitalizations among children have also increased the demand for higher infant age group pediatric vaccines. Furthermore, population increase in emerging countries, such as China and India, has led to the increasing demand for pediatric vaccines, propelling the market growth.

Besides, vaccination for adults has become mandatory to minimize the hospitalizations and deaths caused due to influenza. According to data published by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in 2021, it is estimated that approximately 70.0% to 85.0% of seasonal influenza-related deaths occur in people aged 65 and above. Adult vaccines hold a significant market share in the market due to the government's rise in immunization programs and the high vaccine dose procurement by GAVI, PAHO, and UNICEF. In addition, the immunization coverage provision has further led to an increase in the geriatric population getting vaccinated, increasing the demand for adult vaccines.

By Distribution Channel Analysis

Dominance of Hospitals & Retail Pharmacies Owing to Increased Immunization Rates

Based on distribution channel, the market is classified into hospital & retail pharmacies, government suppliers, and others.

The hospital & retail pharmacies segment generated the highest revenue among all the distribution channels in 2022. This leading position is attributed to the fact that vaccination is generally preferred and conducted at smaller institutions. In addition, the large vaccine supply from hospitals is expected to generate a high market value in the forthcoming years. Therefore, the hospital & retail pharmacies segment is anticipated to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period.

The government suppliers segment is expected to account for a significant share as governmental organizations, through their vaccination programs, help immunize individuals globally. Moreover, international health organizations are procuring a large volume of vaccination doses and supplies at a cost-effective or no cost to all the regions covered under these organizations. The growing vaccination programs will help in generating comparatively greater market value during the projected period.

• For example, the National Health Services (NHS) offers free influenza vaccines for people aged 65 years and above. Also, they provide free vaccinations to people with certain conditions such as diabetes, heart failure, asthma, and pregnant women.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

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North America generated a revenue of USD 4.00 billion in 2022, marking its dominant position in the global market. The rapid launch of effective products, coupled with technologically advanced vaccine manufacturing systems across the region, is expected to drive market growth in the region.

• According to data published by the World Health Organization (WHO), around 37.2 million influenza cases were identified in 2021 in the U.S.

Asia Pacific is expected to register a higher CAGR during the forecast period. The increasing number of government initiatives to provide these vaccines and create awareness about influenza is anticipated to drive market growth across the region. Also, the rising population across the region in China and India and the demand for effective vaccines leading to higher sales are expected to boost the market growth.

• In May 2021, the Health Minister of Australia launched the National Flu Vaccination Program with the objective to immunize Australians. Through this vaccination program, 20.0 million vaccine doses have been made available through pharmacies, GPs, and clinics.

Europe held the second leading position in the global market. This is attributable to the expansion of vaccination coverage for high-risk people leading to higher immunization rates among the European population.

• For example, in July 2022, GSK Plc entered into an agreement with the European Commission’s Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) to produce and supply 85.0 million doses of Adjupanrix, a pandemic influenza vaccine. As per the accord, the company would supply the doses to the 12 participating European countries.

Latin America and the Middle East & Africa regions are expected to account for significant growth during the forecast period. This is attributable to the rising awareness of influenza virus, launch of influenza vaccine, and increasing government efforts to get everyone vaccinated, thereby fueling the market growth.

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• For example, the Federal Health Ministry announced that more than 32.0 million doses of influenza vaccines would be administered for the 2021–2022 season in Mexico.

KEY INDUSTRY PLAYERS

Strong Product Portfolio of Key Competitors to Dominate the Market

Sanofi, a leading biopharmaceutical company, dominated the market share. The company focuses on establishing new manufacturing facilities and expanding its geographic footprint. Furthermore, the approval of its products for use in developing and developed nations also strengthens its market position.

• In July 2022, Sanofi’s two vaccines, Fluzone High-Dose Quadrivalent and Flublok Quadrivalent, received approval for influenza season 2022-2023 in the U.S. for adults over 65 years of age.

Other companies, such as CSL Limited, GlaxoSmithKline plc, and AstraZeneca, among others, have their products marketed globally. Additionally, factors such as the growing efforts to reduce the burden of diseases, increasing investments in research and development to launch next generation vaccines, and the surging vaccination rates are the primary focus of the market players to cater to the rising demand for these vaccines.

• In February 2022, CSL Limited invested in a new research and development facility situated in Waltham to support its growing R&D portfolio for seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccines. The company primarily focuses on utilizing the next-generation mRNA technology for the development of current and future vaccines.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• GlaxoSmithKline plc (U.K.)


• Sanofi (France)


• AstraZeneca (U.K.)


• CSL Limited (Australia)


• BIKEN Co., Ltd. (Japan)


• Abbott (U.S.)


• SINOVAC (China)


• Viatris Inc. (U.S.)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• September 2022 – Pfizer Inc. initiated the phase 3 clinical study for mRNA-based influenza vaccine. The study enrolled 25,000 U.S. adults aged 18 years and older. The trial is aimed to study the safety, efficacy, immunogenicity, and tolerability of the company’s quadrivalent modified RNA influenza vaccine.


• March 2022 – Seqirus announced the approval of Flucelvax quadrivalent, a cell-based influenza vaccine for individuals in the age group of two years and older. This approval by Health Canada made children in the age group of 2 to 18 years eligible for these vaccines.


• September 2021 – Sanofi acquired Translate Bio, a clinical-stage mRNA therapeutics company, for the development of new and seasonal vaccines for influenza.


• February 2021 – GlaxoSmithKline plc expanded a pre-existing collaboration with Vir Biotechnology with an aim to develop monoclonal antibodies for the prevention and treatment of influenza.


• January 2021 – ModernaTX, Inc. announced the company’s plans to utilize mRNA technology to develop and manufacture influenza, HIV, and Nipah virus vaccines.

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An Infographic Representation of Influenza Vaccine Market

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The research report provides a detailed global influenza vaccine market analysis based on various dynamics. It focuses on key aspects such as leading companies, products, and distribution channels. Besides this, it offers insights into the market trends and highlights key industry developments. In addition to the factors mentioned above, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the market growth in recent years.

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