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The global influenza vaccine market size was USD 5.86 billion in 2020. The global impact of COVID-19 has been unprecedented and staggering, with influenza vaccines witnessing a positive demand shock across all regions amid the pandemic. Based on our analysis, the global market exhibited a stellar growth of 31.6% in 2020. The market is projected to grow from USD 6.59 billion in 2021 to USD 10.73 billion in 2028 at a CAGR of 7.2% during the 2021-2028 period. The sudden growth in CAGR is attributable to this market's demand and growth, returning to pre-pandemic levels once the pandemic is over.
The influenza virus circulates continuously, causing regional epidemics and outbreaks, leading to thousands of deaths. For instance, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data statistics, more than 13 million flu cases were recorded so far in the 2019-20 timeframe. The changing character of the virus is compelling an annual change in the vaccine strain to match the influenza virus strain worldwide. The increasing prevalence of influenza epidemics and seasonal outbreaks is likely to expand the product sales during the projected period.
There are numerous licensed seasonal influenza vaccines recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and other governmental organizations to help fight the disease in the current market scenario. Governments have focused on advising people to get vaccinated early to provide maximum protection during the flu season. Moreover, pharmaceutical companies are continually facing new challenges in developing a suitable vaccine against a particular strain. Therefore, the rising demand for effective flu vaccines is anticipated to surge the global market.
Increasing Uptake for Vaccines Amid COVID-19 to Bolster Growth
The coronavirus pandemic naturally impacted the routine immunization programs and campaigns conducted worldwide in developing and developed countries. However, Flu vaccination rates have gone up considerably during the pandemic owing to factors such as push from health experts/health departments as well as extension/expansion of various government programs that provide free vaccination against the flu. Additionally, growing awareness among the public about the higher risk of getting infected with COVID-19 if the flu weakens the immune system is also another factor contributing to the uptake of flu vaccines. For instance, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC), as of May, over 189.4 million flu vaccines for the 2020-2021 flu season have been distributed in the U.S compared to 174 million in the 2019-2020 season.
Also, according to the latest study published in 2020, researchers in Brazil stated that a flu shot could reduce the mortality rate by 20 percent when taken before COVID-19 and approximately about 27 percent when the vaccine is taken after the onset of COVID-19. Thus, the factors mentioned above are likely to propel the demand for the product.
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Inclusion of Advanced and Effective Flu Vaccines in the Immunization Programs to Aid Growth
Growing prevalence of influenza disease worldwide has led to implementation of different strategies by the government to boost the uptake of flu vaccine in the countries. One of the crucial strategy in the inclusion of the vaccine in the immunization program of the countries specifically focusing on the emerging and low-income economies. Nowadays, owing to the greater awareness among the population with respect to infectious diseases has led to timely vaccination in the developing countries. Developing countries have revised their immunization programs and included compulsory flu vaccination in the annual program for all age groups. For instance, the Singapore government has established a National Childhood Immunization Schedule (NCIS) in 2017 under the Ministry of Health that comprises of immunization against 12 diseases. In November 2020, the NCIS announced the inclusion of vaccination for influenza and varicella. Such initiatives is anticipated to rise the demand for flu vaccine resulting in strong market growth during the forecast period.
Increasing Government Support for Immunization to Promote Influenza Vaccine Market Growth
One of the crucial and significant factors driving the global market is the increasing government support and surveillance regarding vaccination against influenza. Surveillance must be carried out on the national and global levels to monitor the supply, distribution, and administration of flu vaccines. In association with other governments, WHO constantly monitors the demand and conducts immunization programs globally to minimize the vaccine's unmet need.
For instance, in May 2021, Australia launched a national flu vaccination program amid the pandemic to reduce the infection rate among the population. As a result, the seasonal vaccines in Australia are now available through community pharmacies and general practitioners. With the help of this immunization program, the government has already vaccinated around 5 million people, and more than 20 million vaccines are still available through community pharmacy, GP's, and dedicated flu clinics.
Organizations such as WHOs Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and health ministries of several countries are helping in keeping track of chronic diseases. Combined with this, according to several published articles and news, Asian countries have started to roll out early influenza vaccination programme emphasizing in reduction of flu and COVID-19 cases simultaneously. Therefore, active government support to bolster growth rate of the market.
Robust R&D with Strong Pipeline Candidates to Drive Market Growth
The increasing investment by leading market players such as Emergent BioSolutions Inc., Sanofi, and F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd, with strong pipeline of vaccines, and the growing government funding have facilitated the launch of therapeutically effective vaccines.
For instance, in May 2021, Seqirus, which is currently developing a cell-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine for children six months to 4 years, announced positive phase-III clinical data results at the Pediatric Academic Society (PAS) virtual meeting.
Longer Timeline for Vaccine Production to Limit Growth
Novel vaccine development is huge process that generally takes between 10 to 15 years to develop coupled with establishing its safety, quality, and efficacy. There are three major factors that contribute to the long timelines that include vaccine development complexities, globalized clinical development, and divergent regulatory requirements. Regulatory requirements for clinical trials also vary significantly in countries worldwide. Consequently, this may result in significant delays in the development of novel vaccines. Moreover, data from different countries/regions is often requested for regulatory approval purposes. However, many countries have different labelling requirements coupled with stretched timelines, which adds further complexity to the process of conducting clinical trials across the globe. Therefore, impact of the stringent regulatory requirements coupled with longer duration for conductance of clinical trial is anticipated to hamper the product development.
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Effectiveness Offered by the Inactivated Products to Contribute for a Leading Position
On the basis of type, the global market has been classified into inactivated and live attenuated.
The inactivated segment is estimated to hold the most dominant share of the global market. The higher sales, coupled with demand for inactivated vaccines, is responsible for the dominance. Developing inactivated vaccines is also the forefront focus of industrialists, as these are standardized according to the specific virus strain. This characteristic of the vaccines helps in minimizing the flu in lesser time and revert positive effects. Inactivated vaccines such as Seqirus's AFLURIA FLUCELVAX, GlaxoSmithKline's FLUARIX and FLULAVAL, and Sanofi's FLUZONE are currently recommended. The increasing demand, coupled with the high prevalence of influenza, is responsible for the highest CAGR of the segment during the forecast period.
On the other hand, live attenuated vaccines are anticipated to grow at a slower rate due to numerous challenges faced by companies in developing and approving the vaccines.
Growing Efficacy of Quadrivalent Vaccines to Exhibit a Highest CAGR
Based on valency, the global market has been segmented into quadrivalent and trivalent.
The quadrivalent vaccines accounted for the highest influenza vaccine market share in the segment due to greater demand for these products. They help protect from four strains of the influenza virus through a single vaccine. The sales have pushed up in the emerging nations to meet the immunization targets set by the government to shield against influenza outbreaks. Additionally, the launch of novel vaccines has also contributed to the expansion of the quadrivalent vaccines segment. Further, safety and immunogenicity properties coupled with potential quadrivalent pipeline candidates have ensured a higher CAGR during the forecast period.
On the other hand, trivalent vaccines are expected to record a smaller share in the flu vaccine market owing to the limited trivalent vaccine availability.
Growing Demand for Pediatric Vaccines to Aid the Segment to Exhibit Highest CAGR
On the basis of the age group, the global market has been segmented into pediatrics and adults.
The pediatric vaccines segment registered a higher market size among the age group segment. This dominance is attributable to the higher vaccination doses provided to newborns, infants, and children, to shield them from an early age against influenza disease. WHO, as well as CDC, have implemented immunization strategies such as the provision of vaccines at an early age as well as to every child globally. A high increase in influenza infection and frequency rates among young children has led to various strategies. CDC also states that since 2010, flu-related hospitalizations among children have also increased the demand for higher infant age group pediatric vaccines. Furthermore, population enlargement in emerging countries such as China and India has led to the increasing demand for pediatric vaccines, thus, propelling the market growth opportunities.
Vaccination for adults has also become mandatory to minimize the hospitalizations and deaths caused due to influenza. Adult vaccines hold a significant market share in this market due to the government's rise in immunization programs and the high vaccine dose procurement by GAVI, PAHO, and UNICEF. In addition, the immunization coverage provision has further led to an increase in the geriatric population getting vaccinated, thus, increasing the demand for adult vaccines.
Increased Immunization Rates Responsible for Dominance of the Hospitals & Retail Pharmacies
Based on the distribution channel, the influenza vaccines market is classified into hospitals & retail pharmacies, government suppliers, and others.
Hospital and retail pharmacies generated the highest revenue among the distribution channel segment in 2020. This leading position is attributable to the fact that vaccination is generally preferred and conducted at smaller institutions. In addition, the large vaccine supply from the hospitals is expected to generate a high market value in the forthcoming years. Therefore, the hospital and retail pharmacies are also anticipated to witness the highest CAGR during the forecast period.
On the other hand, government suppliers are expected to hold a significant share as governmental organizations, through their vaccination programs, help immunize individuals globally. Moreover, international health organizations are procuring a large volume of vaccination doses and supplies at a cost-effective or no cost to all the regions covered under these organizations. The growing vaccination programs will further help in generating comparatively higher market value in the projected period.
North America Influenza Vaccine Market Size, 2020 (USD Billion)
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North America generated a revenue of USD 3.04 billion in 2020 marking the dominant position in the influenza market. The rapid launch of effective products, coupled with technologically advanced vaccine manufacturing systems across the region, is expected to drive market growth in the region. Besides, the increasing influenza prevalence and the high sales of vaccines are further expected to fuel the market's growth in North America. Moreover, the rising government funding, the presence of strong key players, and sophisticated vaccination centers and hospitals will contribute to the stellar growth of the market.
Asia-Pacific is expected to showcase exponential growth in the forthcoming years. Due to the rising population across the region in countries such as China and India, the demand for effective vaccines leading to higher sales is expected to boost the market growth. In addition, a proactive initiation of government in the supply of flu vaccines across the region, coupled with improved influenza control strategies, is anticipated to drive the influenza market growth across the region. For instance, in September 2020, Japan health ministry started preparing 31.2 million flu vaccines, 7% more than the previous year with an aim to immunize its population against the influenza.
Europe held the second leading position in the market and is likely to experience a significant growth in the market owing to the expansion of vaccination coverage for high-risk people leading to higher immunization rates among the European population. Moreover, product launch in the region is expected to drive growth in the adoption rate. For example, in November 2020, the European Commission granted Sanofi the marketing authorization for Supemtek, a quadrivalent influenza vaccine indicated against influenza in individuals aged 18 years and older.
Latin America and the Middle East and Africa regions are expected to showcase restricted growth during the forecast period. This is attributable to the fewer influenza cases recorded in the low-income countries of the region. Additionally, the increasing government efforts to get every individual vaccinated will bode well for market growth.
Strong Product Portfolio of Key Competitors to Lead Dominance
The influenza vaccine market is dominated by Sanofi, a global leader in the healthcare industry. Sanofi has a full-fledged vaccine portfolio, including quadrivalent as well as trivalent vaccines. The company focuses on delivering effective vaccines by constantly upgrading its technologies. Other companies such as CSL Limited, GlaxoSmithKline plc, AstraZeneca, among others, have their effective products marketed globally. Additionally, factors such as the growing efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and the surging vaccination rates are the primary focus of the market players.
An Infographic Representation of Influenza Vaccine Market
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The global influenza vaccine market report provides a detailed analysis of the global market. It focuses on the key aspects such as leading companies, product types, and leading product applications. Besides, the report offers insights into the market trends and highlights key industry developments. In addition to the features above, the report encompasses several factors that have contributed to the market's growth over the recent years. It further offers an analytical depiction of the market trends and estimations to illustrate the forthcoming investment pockets. Finally, the market is quantitatively analyzed from 2021 to 2028 to provide the financial competency of the market.
Value (USD Billion)
By Age Group
By Distribution Channel
Fortune Business Insights says that the market is projected to reach USD 10.73 billion by 2028.
In 2020, the market stood at USD 5.86 billion.
Growing at a CAGR of 7.2%, the market will exhibit faster growth during the forecast period (2021-2028)
The inactivated segment is expected to be the leading segment in the market during the forecast period.
Proactive government support and surveillance to help eradicate seasonal influenza outbreaks, coupled with potential pipeline candidates, will drive the market.
Sanofi, GlaxoSmithKline plc, and CSL Limited are the top players in the market.
North America is expected to hold the highest market share in the market.
Increased awareness regarding immunization benefits, immunization coverage, and availability of effective vaccines in the market would drive the adoption during the forecast period.
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