Handgun Market Size, Share & Russia-Ukraine War Impact Analysis, By Type (Single-Shot Handguns (Muzzleloaders), Revolvers, and Semi-Automatic Pistols), By Operation (Automatic, Semi-Automatic, and Manual), By End-user (Defense & Homeland Security, Self-Defense, Sports, Hunting, and Law Enforcement), and Regional Forecast, 2023-2030

The global handgun market size was valued at USD 3.12 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow from USD 3.41 billion in 2023 to USD 5.35 billion by 2030, exhibiting a CAGR of 6.6% during the forecast period.

The term ‘handgun’ refers to any firearm that is small enough to fit in the palm of your hand during firing. A handgun typically fires a single round or bullet, with additional rounds carried in a rotating mechanism or magazine. The two most common types of handguns are revolvers and semi-automatic pistols. Other less common types include derringers and machine pistols.

Handguns serve various purposes, including target shooting, small-game hunting, and personal protection. In many countries, automatic guns are prohibited, and personal ownership of any firearm is restricted in most parts of the world.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR IMPACT

Russia-Ukraine War Positively Influenced Market Growth Due to Increased Procurement of Firearms by European Countries

As the world continues to recover from the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic that have impacted economies worldwide, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reignited growth in the arms markets of the U.S., Europe, and other weapon manufacturers. The conflict in Ukraine has led to increased firearm usage across Europe, notably among NATO members. Armed personnel have been equipped with various types of light weapons and small arms for border defense and wartime operations. The U.S. and other NATO countries have been enhancing their armed forces, deploying them near Russia’s borders, and refining their operational capabilities. Notably, the European Union (EU) has agreed, for the first time in history, to procure and supply weapons to Ukraine, significantly boosting the global market share.

According to SIPRI’s annual survey, the U.S. remains the largest and fastest exporter of conventional weapons. The country accounted for 40% of all large arms exports from 2018 to 2022, compared to 33% from 2013 to 2017, while Russia accounted for 16%, as reported by SIPRI. The report utilizes five-year comparisons and metrics to standardize the value of weapons systems. European arms imports increased by 47% during the same period when global trade decreased by approximately 5%. Considering the substantial commitments from the U.S. and the region to complete arms transfers to Ukraine, it is reasonable to anticipate continued growth in European arms imports.

• For instance, in May 2022, according to the Pentagon, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) awarded eight contracts for weapons and equipment for the war in Ukraine, worth USD 136.8 million.

Handgun Market Trends

Development of Polymer-based Handguns to Emerge as Latest Market Trend

A polymer gun is a type of handgun made with polymer, a material composed of repetitive molecular units. It serves as a substitute for metal parts in firearms, offering a lightweight and corrosion-resistant solution that enhances the product’s performance and durability for shooters. With polymer technology gaining popularity in the firearms industry, numerous options are available for gun purchasers. Polymer is utilized in various modern firearms, including models such as the Fort-17 (a polymer-frame version of the Fort-12), Glock-19, Smith & Wesson M&P Shield, Sig Sauer P320, Heckler & Koch VP9, and others.

Compared to traditional metal weapons that can weigh several pounds, polymer-based weapons are notably lighter. This reduced weight allows people to carry their weapons without feeling fatigued, which is especially crucial during strenuous activities. Moreover, the lightweight nature of polymer weapons enables easier maneuverability. This design improvement allows users of polymer weapons to execute faster and more fluid movements compared to traditional firearms.

• For instance, in January 2020, the U.S. Marine Corps entered a 10-million-dollar contract with ammunition manufacturer MAC LLC for a new line of lightweight polymer machine gun ammunition. This contract marked a significant development in the effort to reduce the burden on Marines on the battlefield.

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Handgun Market Growth Factors

Increasing Innovations in Advanced Weapon to Boost Market Growth

Countries worldwide have embraced modern technologies to enhance their warfare capabilities, alongside changes in the sizes of armed forces and weaponry. Market advancement is being driven by the necessity for smarter technologies, such as automatic guns, compact submachine guns, and light weapons, which significantly enhance warfare effectiveness. Sub-machine guns can fire 5.56 mm rounds at a cyclic rate of 650 rounds per minute.

• For instance, True Velocity, a renowned arms and ammunition manufacturer in the U.S., is developing a 6.8 mm weapon to replace the 5.56 mm NATO cartridges in specific high-skilled operations. This new round is anticipated to be faster and slightly heavier than NATO's 5.56mm cartridges, enabling military forces to achieve longer-range and more accurate firing.

The U.S. armed forces are actively seeking high-tech guns capable of firing 6.8 mm ammunition. The country has selected Textron Systems, General Dynamics Corporation, and SIG SAUER to manufacture advanced firearms. India, a major spender in its defense sector, has announced plans to substitute its 5.56mm weapons and ammunition with the more potent 7.62mm guns and ammunition. There is substantial demand for small-caliber ammunitions due to these developments.

Demand for Fire Arms from Civilians to Boost Handgun Market Growth

Shotguns and handguns serve multiple commercial purposes, including sports, personal security, and hunting. The market's expansion is driven by an increasing demand for rifles, pistols, and shotguns among civilians. According to a 2017 survey on small arms, there are over 1 billion firearms worldwide, with 85% (USD 857 million) of them used by civilians. The market shows promising growth due to a substantial increase in shooting ranges and growing concerns regarding personal safety. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a steady increase in gun purchases in the U.S. in March 2020 due to unexpected public safety fears. This factor has the potential to further boost the handgun market growth.

RESTRAINING FACTORS

Gun Purchase Restricted by Political, Legal, and Economic Factors to Hamper Market Growth

Ammunition, firearms, and various other weapons are subject to diverse rules and regulations across nations due to variations in their political, economic, and legal frameworks. This stands as one of the most critical factors influencing both local and international competitors in the market. Non-compliance with these regulations can adversely impact sales, profit margins, and revenue, potentially leading to administrative and criminal lawsuits. Consequently, companies must adhere to regulations in both their home countries and foreign nations, as these rules significantly affect procurement and contracting operations in numerous countries.

Examples of such regulations include technology transfer, import and export controls, and anti-corruption laws, which can differ significantly from one country to another. Failure to comply with these frameworks can profoundly impact the operations of market participants and diminish their profit margins globally. Variations in laws between countries, influenced by legal, economic, and political factors, could potentially hinder the market's development.

Handgun Market Segmentation Analysis

By Type Analysis

Semi-Automatic Pistols to Witness Increased Demand Due to Their Use in Personal Security, Hunting & Shooting Sports

Based on type, the market is classified into single-shot handguns (Muzzleloaders), revolvers, and semi-automatic pistols.

The semi-automatic pistol segment accounted for the largest share of the global market in 2022 and record the fastest CAGR during 2023-2030. The segment’s growth is attributed to the growing demand for these pistols for personal security, shooting sports, and hunting activities. Moreover, rising security concerns due to cross-border tensions, political turmoil, and other factors might increase the demand for guns during the forecast period.

The revolvers segment is expected to grow at a moderate pace due to the increasing purchase of innovative revolvers by homeland security and the military. For example, SSS Defense, India’s second private sector organization after PLR Systems Ltd. (PLR), a joint venture formed by Israel Weapon Industries and Adani Group, will begin producing and testing weapons for the foreign markets at its newly established factory in Bengaluru.

By Operation Analysis

Automatic Segment's Dominance Propelled by its Continuous Fire Mechanisms

Based on operation, the market is classified into automatic, semi-automatic, and manual. The automatic segment was the dominant one in terms of market share in 2022 and will record the highest CAGR during the forecast period. Automatic weapons fire continuously as long as the trigger is held or ammunition is present in the magazine/chamber. Rising defense spending, especially by developing countries, is a major growth driver for this segment.

By End-user Analysis

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Defense & Homeland Security Dominates due to Modernization of Defense Forces

Based on end-user, the market is classified into defense & homeland security, self-defense, sports, hunting, and law enforcement. The defense & homeland security segment accounted for the largest handgun market share in 2022 and will record the fastest CAGR during the forecast period. Due to technological advancements in warfare and increased defense spending across the globe, this segment is expected to maintain its dominance over the forecast period. In addition, due to the modernization plans of end-users in the defense sector and annual increase in defense spending, the segment is growing at a moderate pace. Increased terrorism, cross-border conflicts, and the changing nature of combat have led to the modernization of defense forces across the world by acquiring new weapons.

Due to the growing sense of fear globally, the self-defense segment has grown tremendously, especially amid the COVID-19 outbreak. The hunting segment is predicted to experience average growth due to increasing personal safety concerns and demand for hunting. Moreover, due to the modernization of police agencies and their usefulness in fighting modern urban terrorism, the police segment is growing at a strong rate worldwide.

REGIONAL INSIGHTS

In terms of geography, the market is divided into North America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East & Africa, and Latin America.

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North America dominated the market share in the base year 2022 and is expected to maintain its dominance in the forecast period. A high defense budget, an increasing number of firing ranges in the U.S. and Canada, and the acquisition of new weapons for combat operations are facilitating the region’s market growth.

Asia Pacific is expected to expand significantly during the forecast period. Cross-border conflicts and terrorist activities in Asia are driving market growth. The market is developing due to increasing defense spending and military modernization plans in South Korea, Australia, China, and India.

• For instance, in July 2023, The Australian federal government awarded a multi-million-dollar contract to a Queensland company to procure and deliver a new generation of small arms to the Australian Defense Force (ADF). The contract is part of a USD 500 million commitment to equip Australia's soldiers, marines, and air force with advanced lethal weapons systems.

Europe captured the second-largest market share in the base year. The market is continuing to grow due to the increasing need for retail theft prevention solutions. Additionally, companies such as Glock GmbH, Fabbrica d'Armi Pietro Beretta S.p.A., Heckler & Koch GmbH, FN HERSTAL, Thales Group, and others are innovating new technologically advanced guns, which is expected to drive the market growth in Europe.

The rest of the world, which covers Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, is expected to grow significantly over the forecast period. Development in the Middle East & Africa, and Latin America is moderate due to increased military investment and innovative civilian products. As a result of increased political disagreements and defense spending, the rest of the world is growing fast.

• For instance, in July 2023, Brazilian arms manufacturer Taurus signed an agreement with Sepha Military Industries Company to distribute and sell its products to the Saudi Arabian military and police.

List of Key Handgun Market Companies

Development of Advance Guns by the Key Market Players Such as Glock GmbH and SIG SAUER to Propel Market Growth

The market share is characterized by several players, including Glock GmbH, SIG SAUER, Sturm, Ruger & Co. Inc., FN HERSTAL, and others. The major players in the market focus on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), emerging in new markets, technological innovation, and product development to expand their market share. However, the lack of stringent entry barriers suggests an anticipated increase in the number of domestic players in the global market for handguns.

LIST OF KEY COMPANIES PROFILED:

• Glock gmbh (Austria)


• SIG SAUER (U.S.)


• Sturm, Ruger & Co., Inc. (U.S.)


• FN HERSTAL (Belgium)


• Ceska zbrojovka a.s. (Czech Republic)


• Israel Weapon Industries (Israel)


• Colt's Manufacturing (U.S.)


• Beretta (Italy)


• Smith & Wesson (U.S.)


• Kalashnikov Group (Russia)

KEY INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENTS:

• August 2023 - India based state-owned company Advanced Weapons and Equipment India Limited (AWEIL) has launched a long-range revolver, ‘Prabal’. The Prabal revolver fire reach is up to 50 meters, more than double of other Indian revolvers.


• October 2022 - Jindal Defense plans to start manufacturing small arms in India, collaborating with Taurus Armas S.A. from Brazil. The plant plans to produce 9mm pistols for use by the Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) and the Indian Army. Both companies also plan to produce 5.56x45mm carbines, which the Indian Army requires in large quantities.


• October 2022 - Central Saanich-based MD Charlton Co., Ltd. has won a USD 3.2 million contract to supply a new breed of sidearms, known as the ‘C22’ for Canadian soldiers, as well as Navy and Air Force personnel. The C22 is a new model of sidearm for the Canadian Forces, replacing the older, 9mm ‘Browning’ Hi-Power pistol that dates back to World War II.


• April 2022 - The Polish armed forces have acquired new Grot C16 rifles and VIS 100 pistols. The Vis 100 semi-automatic pistol chambered for the 9×19 mm cartridge is a Browning-action firearm with a barrel-locking ejection port and hammer-fire design.


• June 2022 - The U.S. Air Force Lifecycle Command Center's Small Arms Program Office purchased approximately 125,000 M18s from Sig Sauer for USD 22.1 million. It will provide Air Force organizations with small arms requirements. The acquisition includes test ammunition and design services.

REPORT COVERAGE

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The handgun market research report provides an in-depth analysis of the market, including the leading companies, small arms manufacturers, types, and leading applications. The report also provides insights into the market trends and key industry developments. The report also includes factors that have helped the market grow in recent years.

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